Friday Estimates: Meg Keeps Summer Alive
August 11, 2018
Surprisingly, The Meg dominated the box office on Friday with a very summer-like opening day of $16.5 million. There were some who thought the film wouldn’t earn that much during the entire weekend. Our prediction wasn’t that pessimistic, but this result still blows it out of the water. The film earned 51% positive reviews and a B plus from CinemaScore. Both results are fine. They are nothing special, but also nothing to worry about. The genre does tend to be front-loaded, so a $40 million weekend isn’t not a sure thing, but more of a coin toss. Even if the film doesn’t reach that mark over its opening weekend, this will still be a major win for Warner Bros., which has not has a good year.
Mission: Impossible—Fallout was in a distant second place with $5.3 million on Friday, putting it on pace for close to $20 million over the weekend. This is a little sharper decline than I anticipated, but it is still on pace for $200 million domestically. This does mean it might not be Paramount’s biggest hit of 2018, as Bumblebee could beat it at the last minute.
Slender Man earned third place with $4.85 million. The film is earning terrible reviews and only managed a D minus from CinemaScore, so its legs will be short, even compared to other horror movies. It should earn close to $12 million over the weekend, which will be good enough for fourth place.
Christopher Robin’s quest for $100 million ended on Friday, as it earned $3.62 million, putting it on pace for just over $12 million during the weekend. It fell 62% from its opening Friday, which is too much for a family film and it could end up being Disney’s lowest grossing release of the year. (I’m not sure about The Nutcracker and the Four Realms’ chances.)
There were no previews for BlacKkKlansman, which landed in fifth place with $3.6 in just over 1,500 theaters. This is fine, I guess. With its reviews, I was hoping for more. That said, it did earn an A minus from CinemaScore, so its legs could be an asset and a nearly $10 million opening is not a bad start for this time of year, especially given its theater count.
On the other hand, Dog Days is going to have a bad opening, a very bad opening. It only managed $770,00 on Friday and it needed twice that just to avoid the Mendoza Line. Its five-day opening will be less than $4 million. Its reviews are in the overall positive level and it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, but that’s doesn’t matter, as theater owners will be looking to drop this film as soon as they are contractually able to.
- The Meg Comparisons
- BlacKkKlansman Comparisons
- Slender Man Comparisons
- Dog Days Comparisons
Filed under: Friday Estimates, Christopher Robin, Mission: Impossible—Fallout, The Meg, Slender Man, BlacKkKlansman, Dog Days