Weekend Estimates: Meg is Biggest Killer Shark Movie In Decades
August 12, 2018
The Meg not only beat our initial prediction, it topped yesterday’s revised estimate and that’s a really good sign. Warner Bros. is reporting an opening weekend of $44.5 million. If this is accurate, then the film’s internal multiplier will be a healthy 2.70. Granted, its reviews are mixed and it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore and that’s not a great sign for its long term chances. However, there are no movies opening for the rest of the summer that are as big as this film, so that could help its legs. After all, The Hitman’s Bodyguard had a multiplier of 3.53. Internationally, the numbers were even better, as the film earned $96.8 million, including $50.3m on 12,650 screens in China. It is also a hit in Mexico ($6.2 million) and Russia ($5.0 million), although it is a more muted success in the U.K. with $4.4 million. That last market is on par with what we thought the film would open with here. On a side note, you are more likely to die eating shark that being eaten by a shark, so don’t kill sharks. They are apex predators and are very important to the environment.
Mission: Impossible—Fallout was in a distant second place with $20.0 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $162.0 million. This is a little lower than our prediction, but more than enough to get to $200 million domestically.
Christopher Robin landed in third place with $12.43 million over the weekend for a total of $50.02 million after two weeks of release. It will match its $75 million production domestically, while it is still too early to tell where it will finish internationally. It managed $3.8 million for a two-week total of $12.1 million overseas; however, it is playing in less than 20% of the international marketplace and has yet to open in the U.K., for example. If it can make $100 million internationally, then it should break even, eventually.
Slender Man opened in fourth place with $11.33 million. I’ve heard reports that the film’s budget was under $10 million, but I’ve also heard reports that it cost $30 million to make. I hope for Sony’s sake that the lower number is accurate. If so, then it won’t take long legs to break even. It’s not going to earn long legs, not with its terrible reviews and its D minus from CinemaScore. However, if the film only cost $10 million to make, then this opening should practically guarantee it will be profitable, if not memorable.
BlacKkKlansman opened in fifth place with $10.8 million in just over 1,500 theaters, giving it the second best theater average in the top ten. With its stellar reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore, this should be enough to get more theater owners interested in booking the movie.
The final wide release of the week was Dog Days, which bombed, earning 12th place with just $2.63 million / $3.67 million during its three-day / five-day openings. Its reviews are good and it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, but that’s doesn’t matter, because it missed the Mendoza Line, which means theater owners will be looking to drop this film as soon as they are contractually able to and well before word of mouth will have an effect. Maybe it will find an audience on the home market.
There were a couple of limited releases of note. Madeline’s Madeline and Skate Kitchen opened with $20,225 and $17,000 respectively. Both films were playing in just one theater.
- The Meg Comparisons
- BlacKkKlansman Comparisons
- Slender Man Comparisons
- Dog Days Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Christopher Robin, Mission: Impossible—Fallout, The Meg, Slender Man, BlacKkKlansman, Dog Days, Madeline’s Madeline, Skate Kitchen