Weekend Estimates: Grindelwald Fails to Match Expectations, at least Domestically
November 18, 2018
As expected, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald topped the chart over the weekend. However, the opening is weaker than expected with an estimated $62.2 million. Additionally, it has weaker reviews (40% vs. 74%) compared to Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them; a worse CinemaScore (B plus vs. A); and a lower internal multiplier (2.43 vs. 2.51), so this film's legs will likely be much shorter and getting to $200 million might be asking too much. On the other hand, the film has an estimated $191 million internationally, so there’s no reason to worry for Warner Bros., as this movie will be fantastically profitable in the end.
Dr Seuss’ The Grinch is topping expectations by a small margin earning an estimated $38.17 million over the weekend and if this number holds, it will have a running tally of $126.54 million. It is well on its way to $200 million domestically, which would make it only the second Universal film to get to that mark this year. It is still way too early to tell how it will do internationally, but the film is estimated to have an amazing hold in the U.K. down just 25% to $4.90 million for a two-week total of $12.83 million. This is still weaker than its two-week total here.
Bohemian Rhapsody is falling faster than expected, but estimates still have it in third place with $15.7 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $127.9 million. It is in third place, because its competition is missing expectations by a wider margin.
Instant Family is going to debut in fourth place with $14.7 million, assuming estimates hold. Its reviews are 81% positive and it managed an A from CinemaScore, so it could have long legs. This is good news, as the film reportedly cost nearly $50 million to make and it likely won’t find a large audience internationally.
Widows is next with an estimated $12.3 million opening. It has the best reviews of the three wide releases this weekend, but the worst CinemaScore at just a B.
Looking in on limited releases, we find Green Book at $313,000 in 25 theaters. A theater average of $12,520 is good for a limited release, but not good enough to warrant a wide expansion in just a couple of days.
- Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Comparisons
- Instant Family Comparisons
- Widows Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Widows, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Bohemian Rhapsody, Instant Family, Green Book