Friday Estimates: Friday Results are More Little Than Needed
April 13, 2019
It’s going to be a terrible weekend at the box office with almost no film living up to expectations. Shazam fell faster than anticipated, down 69% from its opening Friday to just $6.37 million yesterday. Because it’s a holdover, it will bounce back more than the new releases, but it will still likely fail to match our prediction and is on pace for between $23 million and $24 million for the weekend. It is still going to break even, but if it doesn’t bounce back before Avengers: Endgame debuts, it will merely be very profitable and not amazingly profitable.
Little is doing well, at least compared to expectations, with $5.37 on Friday. Its reviews are mixed and it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore, but it has a family-friendly target demographic, so it should top our prediction with close to $15 million. This isn’t a bad start for a film that cost $20 million to make.
There was a time I thought Hellboy might open in first place, at least during its opening day. However, if Friday’s estimates hold, then it will debut in third place with just $4.93 million. Furthermore, its target demographic, awful reviews, and its mere C from CinemaScore all suggest short legs over the weekend and indeed over the rest of its run. Heck, Game of Thrones’ final season begins on Sunday and this film and that show share a substantial chunk of their respective target audiences and that’s just going to further hurt this film’s legs. In the end, it will only manage third place over the weekend with just $13 million. This is a near disaster for a film that reportedly cost $50 million to make.
Pet Sematary earned fourth place, but this was due to weaker than expected competition, as it only managed $2.93 million. Since it is a holdover and its reviews are good, it should have better legs over the rest of the weekend, helping it take fourth place with between $9 million and $10 million. This is still lower than predicted, but not a complete disaster.
After managed a spot in the top five on Friday, but it shouldn’t get comfortable there. It pulled in $2.9 million during its opening day. Its reviews and its mere B from CinemaScore aren’t going to help its legs. It should still beat our $5 million prediction, but it will miss the top five with just under $8 million.
Missing Link opened outside of the top five on Friday with just $1.61 million. It is a family film, so it should have better legs than most of the other new releases. In fact, it also has the best reviews of the four new releases and is tied with Little for best CinemaScore at a B plus. Unfortunately, even amazing legs will not get it to fifth place with and it will very likely open below the Mendoza Line with just $5 million or so. It will be yet another critically-praised stop-motion animated film that is nonetheless a box office flop.
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Filed under: Friday Estimates, Shazam!, Missing Link, Hellboy, Pet Sematary, Little, After