2019 Preview: June

June 1, 2019

Toy Story 4

While the final weekend in May isn’t over yet, we can safely say the month was merely okay. It managed to keep pace with last May, but I was really hoping to cut into 2019’s deficit by a significant margin. June is not looking any better, at least not compared to 2018. There are two potential monster hits, The Secret Life of Pets 2 and Toy Story 4, as well as a trio of $100 million hits, Dark Phoenix, Men in Black: International, and Annabelle Comes Home. On the surface, this looks excellent; however, last June was even better on top with Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom earning a combined $1 billion domestically. Granted, the only other $100 million hit was Oceans 8, so this year should have a lot better depth. I don’t think it will be enough to gain any ground in the year-over-year comparison, which is the only way to really judge how a month is doing at this point.

Weekend of June 7th, 2019

The Secret Life of Pets 2

The month should get off to a fast start, as there are two major hits coming out this week. The Secret Life of Pets 2 is a potential monster hit and could earn $300 million domestically. Dark Phoenix is the first X-Men movie to come out since Disney bought Fox and that makes it worth paying attention to. It likely won’t match its $200 million production budget at the box office. Finally, there’s Late Night, which is counter-programing and very likely going to get lost in the shuffle. This weekend last year, Ocean’s 8 opened with just over $40 million while the entire top five earned about $90 million. Both The Secret Life of Pets 2 and Dark Phoenix should top Ocean’s 8. In fact, on the high end, The Secret Life of Pets 2 could make more than the top five did last year, helping 2019 earn a solid win in the year-over-year comparison.

Dark Phoenix

Dark Phoenix
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Movies.Disney.com/Dark-Phoenix
Distributor: 20th Century Fox
Release Date: June 7th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for intense sequences of sci-fi violence and action including some gunplay, disturbing images, and brief strong language.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Action
Keywords: Marvel Comics, Mutants, Psychics, Good vs. Evil, Friends turned Enemies
Directed By: Simon Kinberg
Written By: Simon Kinberg, Chris Claremont, John Byrne
Starring: Sophie Turner, James McAvoy, Michael Fassbender, Jennifer Lawrence, Nicholas Hoult, Tye Sheridan, Alexandra Shipp, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Evan Peters
Production Budget: Reported at $200 million
Box Office Potential: $125 million

Dark Phoenix isn’t going to be connected to the M.C.U.; in fact, Disney had nothing to do with its production. However, it is the first X-Men movie to be released since the Disney / Fox merger and this is increasing the amount of attention the film is getting. Sadly, while the buzz is rather loud, it isn’t overly positive and a lot of people are expecting weak reviews while most think it will finish with closer to $100 million than $200 million.

Late Night

Late Night
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: LateNight.movie/
Distributor: Amazon Studios
Release Date: June 7th, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for language throughout and some sexual references.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Comedy
Keywords: Sundance Film Festival 2019, TV Industry, Woman in a Male Dominated Profession, Writing and Writers
Directed By: Nisha Ganatra
Written By: Mindy Kaling
Starring: Mindy Kaling, Emma Thompson
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $20 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million

Emma Thompson stars as a late night talk show host who hires Mindy Kaling as a writer to help combat her reputation as a woman who hates women. Mindy Kaling in turns tries to prove she’s more than just a diversity hire by trying to help turn around Emma Thompson’s struggling show. The early reviews are good, but this is by far the smallest release of the week and one of the smallest releases of the month, so I don’t expect it to find an audience in theaters.

The Secret Life of Pets 2

The Secret Life of Pets 2
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: TheSecretLifeOfPets.com/
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: June 7th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG for some action and rude humor.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Adventure
Keywords: Animal Lead, Talking Animals, Coming of Age, Newlyweds, New Parents
Directed By: Chris Renaud
Written By: Brian Lynch
Starring: Patton Oswalt, Eric Stonestreet, Kevin Hart, Jenny Slate, Ellie Kemper, Lake Bell, Dana Carvey, Hannibal Buress, Bobby Moynihan
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $75 million
Box Office Potential: $250 million

Illumination Entertainment is a master of second-tier animation. That might sound like an insult, but it is not. They have an incredible track record of producing box office smashes at half the production budget that Pixar spends. On the other hand, the quality usually ranges from “really good” to “good enough, for a kids movie” and they rarely produce classics. For example, the first film was entertaining for kids, but not something adult fans of animation would need to add to their collection. This film’s early reviews suggest it will be the same, more or less. The film won’t be as lucky at the box office, as the competition is much stronger this time around. That said, it should still be a monster hit and could even crack $300 million domestically.

Weekend of June 14th, 2019

Men in Black: International

There are two wide releases opening during the second weekend of June, neither of which is expected to be a monster hit. Men in Black: International is widely expected to be the weakest film in the franchise, at least domestically. Meanwhile, Shaft is just looking to become a solid midlevel hit. It should get there. Also opening this week is The Dead Don’t Die. This film is opening in limited release, but the buzz is strong enough that it could expand truly wide during its run.) This weekend last year, Incredibles 2 debuted with over $180 million. 2019 is going to lose the year-over-year comparison. There’s no doubt about that.

Men in Black: International

Men in Black: International
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: MenInBlack.com
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: June 14th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for sci-fi action, some language and suggestive material.
Source: Based on Comic/Graphic Novel
Genre: Adventure
Keywords: Alien Encounters, Friendly Alien on Earth, Secret Agent, Secret Identity, Undercover, London
Directed By: F. Gary Gray
Written By: Matt Holloway, Art Marcum, Lowell Cunningham
Starring: Chris Hemsworth, Tessa Thompson, Liam Neeson
Production Budget: Reported at $110 million
Box Office Potential: $125 million

This film is a delayed sequel / reboot, depending on how you look at things. The main characters are both entirely new, but there is some continuity ties to the previous films, including Emma Thompson returning as Agent O. The buzz surrounding this film isn’t particularly loud, nor is it overwhelmingly positive. However, the film “only” cost $110 million to make, which is a lot less than most other tentpole films cost to make, so it won’t need to be a monster hit to break even. In fact, it could be the worst film in the franchise and earn barely more than $300 million worldwide and it would still break even, eventually. If it just matches expectations, it should manage close to $400 million worldwide and break even early in its home market run.

Shaft

Shaft
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: WarnerBros.com/Movies/Shaft-2019/
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: June 14th, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for pervasive language, violence, sexual content, some drug material and brief nudity.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Comedy
Keywords: Delayed Sequel, Father's Footsteps, Private Investigator, African-American, Blaxploitation, FBI, Cybercrimes, Death of a Best Friend
Directed By: Tim Story
Written By: Alex Barnow, Kenya Barris, Ernest Tidyman
Starring: Samuel L. Jackson, Jessie Usher, Regina Hall, Richard Roundtree
Production Budget: Reported at $30 million
Box Office Potential: $60 million

This is an odd franchise. The first Shaft film came out in the 1970s and was a huge hit for the time. It even spawned a couple of sequels. Then Blaxploitation faded in popularity and the movie franchise was over. Until the 1990s when it was rebooted with Samuel L. Jackson starring as the son of the original Shaft, played by Richard Roundtree. This time around, Jessie Usher plays the third Shaft and all three men are in the movie. I loved the trailer and I really hope it is a big enough hit to spawn another sequel, one that arrives in less than a decade. The film only cost $30 million to make and there are some outliers who think it will make that in the opening weekend. The average expected opening is closer to $20 million than $30 million, but that’s still more than enough to be a financial success, so if it does merely match expectations, a sequel is likely.

Weekend of June 21st, 2019

Toy Story 4

Toy Story 4 is opening this week and it will not only become the biggest hit of the month, it should become the biggest hit of the summer holidays. (As opposed to Avengers: Endgame, which opened while school was still in session.) Child’s Play is a remake / reboot of the long-running franchise, only it switches out Voodoo for evil A.I. Finally, there’s Anna, which is reminding too many people of Atomic Blonde. This weekend last year, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom opened with nearly $150 million, while Incredibles 2 remained potent with $80 million over the weekend. It looks like 2019 could suffer its second loss in a row, but at least it should be very close and 2019 has a chance to win, if Toy Story 4 opens on the high end of expectations.

Anna

Anna
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Anna.movie/
Distributor: Lionsgate
Release Date: June 21st, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for strong violence, language, and some sexual content.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Action
Keywords: Hitmen, Crime Thriller, Paris, Russia, Models
Directed By: Luc Besson
Written By: Luc Besson
Starring: Sasha Luss
Production Budget: Unknown - Reported at $30 million
Box Office Potential: $40 million

An action film from Luc Besson starring Sasha Luss as a model turned government assassin. The film does have some box office potential, but it is very similar to Atomic Blonde, which missed expectations despite having more star power. Maybe this film will turn out to be the bigger box office hit, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Child’s Play

Child’s Play
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: BestBuddi.com/
Distributor: Orion Pictures
Release Date: June 21st, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for bloody horror violence, and language throughout.
Source: Remake
Genre: Horror
Keywords: Teenage Slasher, Living Toys, Artificial Intelligence, Killer Inanimate Objects, Reboot
Directed By: Lars Klevberg
Written By: Tyler Burton Smith, Don Mancini
Starring: Gabriel Bateman, Mark Hamill
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $15 million
Box Office Potential: $35 million

The Child’s Play franchise celebrated its 30th anniversary last year. However, while the franchise has longevity, it’s never been a major player at the box office. Only one film in the franchise has cracked $50 million worldwide and the last two films didn’t even make it to theaters. There was a planned reboot several years ago, but that fell through after several other horror franchise reboots failed. This one is getting into theaters and assuming it is able to get a significant international release, it should become the biggest hit in the franchise. That said, it still likely won’t become a midlevel hit here.

Toy Story 4

Toy Story 4
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Movies.Disney.com/Toy-Story-4
Distributor: Walt Disney
Release Date: June 21st, 2019
MPAA Rating: G
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Adventure
Keywords: Living Toys, Road Trip, Coming of Age, Lost, Rescue, Existential Crisis, Delayed Sequel
Directed By: Josh Cooley
Written By: Stephany Folsom, Andrew Stanton, John Lasseter, Rashida Jones, Will McCormack, Josh Cooley, Valerie LaPointe, Stephany Folsom, Martin Hynes, Andrew Stanton
Starring: Tom Hanks, Tim Allen, Annie Potts, Tony Hale, Keegan-Michael Key, Jordan Peele, Christina Hendricks
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $200 million
Box Office Potential: $450 million

I’m worried about this film. Every previous film in the Toy Story franchise has been a classic; but the trailers for this film haven’t really wowed me. Furthermore, the way Toy Story 3 ended was nearly perfect and I’m concerned this film will not only not live up to the previous installments in the franchise, but it will hurt the franchise’s overall quality.

That said, the buzz is very loud for Toy Story 4 and it should at the very least top Toy Story 3 at the box office. Ticket price inflation alone makes that very likely. There’s even a chance the film will become one of the biggest hits of the year earning more than $500 million. There’s some evidence that it will do even better; it broke Incredibles 2 presales record for an animated film. However, I think it is wise to be a little more cautious when it comes to predicting the film’s box office numbers.

Weekend of June 28th, 2019

Annabelle Comes Home

The month ends with two wide releases, Annabelle Comes Home and Yesterday. Neither of these films are expected to be monster hits, but neither are expected to bomb either. The two wide releases from this weekend last year were similarly good, but not great, so the year-over-year comparison will come down to holdovers. I’m cautiously optimistic.

Annabelle Comes Home

Annabelle Comes Home
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: AnnabelleMovie.net/
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: June 26th, 2019
MPAA Rating:
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Horror
Keywords: Based on an UNTRUE Story, Demons, Babysitters, Paranormal Investigation
Directed By: Gary Dauberman
Written By: Gary Dauberman, Gary Dauberman, James Wan
Starring: Mckenna Grace
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $15 million to $25 million
Box Office Potential: $105 million

The Conjuring is one of the biggest horror franchises of all time. Of the six previous films to come out, four reached $100 million domestically and five hit $250 million worldwide. That’s a level of consistency that really makes my job easier. Annabelle Comes Home should, at the very least, come close to $100 million domestically and anything less than $90 million will be surprising. Meanwhile, it has a chance of topping The Nun to become the second biggest domestic hit in the franchise. I’m not that optimistic, but I do think it will finish north of $100 million.

Yesterday

Yesterday
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: YesterdayMovie.com/
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: June 28th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for suggestive content and language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Drama
Keywords: Music Industry, Alternate or Altered Realities, Romance
Directed By: Danny Boyle
Written By: Richard Curtis, Jack Barth
Starring: Himesh Patel
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $30 million
Box Office Potential: $60 million

Himesh Patel stars as a struggling singer / songwriter. During a global blackout, he gets into an accident and when he wakes up, he’s in an alternate dimension where the Beatles never existed, but he can remember all of their songs. ... Okay, I’m not sure about the “alternate dimension” part, but that seems the most scientifically plausible explanation for the plot. It doesn’t matter. What matters is the music and the cast. The music will obviously be a massive selling point and if the cast is as charming as the trailer makes them out to be, then the film should become a solid midlevel hit and become one of Danny Boyle’s biggest hits at the box office.

Filed under: Monthly Preview, Toy Story 4, Shaft, The Secret Life of Pets 2, Dark Phoenix, Men in Black: International, Anna, Yesterday, Late Night, Child’s Play, The Dead Don’t Die, Annabelle Comes Home, Toy Story, Child's Play, The Conjuring, Danny Boyle