Weekend Predictions: New Releases Go on Holidays

August 29, 2019

Angel Has Fallen

It’s the final weekend of the summer, Labor Day weekend. Officially it is the final weekend of the summer, but if you’ve been paying attention to the box office, then you know summer really ended with the release of Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw weeks ago. This long weekend, movie studios have just given up and there are no wide, or even semi-wide releases to talk about. This means the top five will look about the same as it did last weekend with Angel Has Fallen on top, while some of the holdovers, specifically Good Boys and The Lion King, should take advantage of the lack of competition. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Crazy Rich Asians remained the top film at the box office and will likely beat any of this week’s offerings. In fact, none of the films playing this year will earn as much over four days as Crazy Rich Asians did over three.

Angel Has Fallen beat expectations last weekend and it is hoping to have a strong hold this weekend. There are some promising signs, including the lack of competition and its A minus from CinemaScore. On the other hand, it is the third film in the franchise and sequels do tend to have shorter legs. That said, the holiday will be a help and with a little luck, the film could earn almost as much over four days this weekend as it did over three days last weekend earning just under $20 million. I think that’s a little optimistic, but it should come relatively close with $18 million over the four-day weekend.

Good Boys should see some growth during the four-day weekend, as it is earning some of the best reviews in the top ten and it held on better than expected last weekend. Additionally, the film has already made enough to cover its $20 million production budget, so any dollar it earns now is chipping into its advertising budget. It won’t break even before it reaches the home market, but it will be in the black shortly after that.

The Lion King has already crossed $500 million domestically and $1 billion internationally, so whatever it earns this weekend is beyond icing on the cake. It’s pure gravy on top of icing on the cake. ... Gross. Look for $11 million over the next four days.

Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw won’t do as well, because of its target audience, but it should still earn between $9 and $10 million over the four-day weekend.

Overcomer is a sophomore film and that will hurt its chances, as films tend to fall the fastest during their second weekend of release. On the other hand, faith-based films that do find audiences during their opening weekend tend to have longer than average legs. Finally, this film earned an A plus from CinemaScore, so its target audience loved the movie. Look for between $8 million and $9 million during the four-day weekend.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Lion King, Good Boys, Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw, Angel Has Fallen, Overcomer, Has Fallen