Our DVD and Blu-ray sales estimates are based on weekly retail surveys, which we use to build a weekly market share estimate for each title we are tracking. The market share is converted into a weekly sales estimate based on industry reports on the overall size of the market, including reports published in Media Play News.

For example, if our weekly retail survey estimates that a particular title sold 1% of all units that week, and the industry reports sales of 1,500,000 units in total, we will estimate 15,000 units were sold of that title. The consumer spending estimate is based on the average sales price for the title in the retailers we survey.

We refine our estimates from week to week as more data becomes available. In particular, we adjust weekly sales figures for the quarter once the total market estimates are published by the Digital Entertainment Group. Figures will therefore fluctuate each week, and totals for individual titles can go up or down as we update our estimates.

Because sales figures are estimated based on sampling, they will be more accurate for higher-selling titles.

Home Market Releases for December 17th, 2019

December 18th, 2019

There’s almost exactly a week till Christmas, which explains the slim number of new releases. That said, nearly every film on the main list is worth picking up with a few contenders for Pick of the Week. It was a close three-way race, but in the end, Abominable earned Pick of the Week. More...

Home Market Releases for November 26th, 2019

November 27th, 2019

It is an even worse week on the home market than it was last week. There are two Pick of the Week contenders, MST3K: The Gauntlet and RoboCop: Limited Edition Collector’s Set. The latter has far more extras, but it has also been released on the home market far too many times. It’s not even the first time it has come out on Blu-ray. It was still a very close competitoion, but in the end, MST3K won the title of Pick of the Week. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: It Dominates the Chart, Maybe Reinvigorates the Box Office

September 10th, 2019

It: Chapter Two dominated the box office by almost as large a margin as expected. It certainly did well enough that I’m considering it a victory. It earned $91.06 million over the weekend, which is almost exactly what the total box office made last weekend. More importantly, it is almost as much as the top five made this weekend last year, giving the weekend box office a massive increase of 48% from last weekend to $136 million and more importantly, this was 12% more than the same weekend last year. 2019 is still behind 2018 by a massive margin of $500 million or 6.0% at $7.83 billion to $8.33 billion. However, we did catch up to 2017’s ticket sales pace, so as long as we can maintain this pace for the rest of the year, it won’t look like a disaster at the end of the year. More...

Weekend Estimates: Chapter Two is Number Two on September Chart

September 8th, 2019

It: Chapter Two is missing expectations with an estimated opening weekend of $91.0 million. However, while this is 10% lower than predicted, it is still more than enough to earn second place on the September chart. In fact, it is nearly 70% higher than the third biggest September debut of all time, The Nun, which opened this weekend last year. That’s really going to help the year-over-year comparison. As for the film’s long-range chances, they are mixed. Horror movies rarely have long legs and this is also true of sequels, so horror sequels almost never do well long-term. Additionally, this film’s reviews are much weaker than the first film’s reviews, but on the positive side, it did match its predecessor when it came to the CinemaScore, as both earned B plus ratings. More...

Friday Estimates: It on Pace for Second-Best September Debut

September 7th, 2019

It: Chapter Two isn’t living up to predictions or its predecessor, but it is still on pace to become one of the best September debuts of all time. The film pulled in $37.4 million on Friday, putting it on pace for just over $90 million over the full weekend. It is going to have shorter legs that the original had, thanks in part to the Sequel Effect, but also due to its weaker reviews. On the positive side, it matched the original’s B plus from CinemaScore, so that’s a good sign. More...

Weekend Predictions: It is All We Got

September 5th, 2019

It’s going to be a short prediction column, because there’s not much to talk about. It: Chapter Two is the only wide release of the week and there weren’t even any wide releases last weekend to give It any real competition. In fact, two of the likely top five films have already been in theaters for more than a month. last year, The Nun led the way with $53.81 million. It: Chapter Two could double that during its opening weekend. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Almost Nothing Worked on Labor Day Long Weekend

September 4th, 2019

There were no new wide releases this past weekend and unfortunately, the holdovers weren’t able to take advantage. Angel Has Fallen remained on top, but it did so with only $11.80 million over the three-day weekend. This wasn’t enough to match expectations or last year’s number one film, Crazy Rich Asians. The overall box office fell 18% from last weekend, falling to $89 million. Worse still, this is 10% lower than this weekend last year, putting 2019 behind 2018 by a 6.2% or $510 million at $7.64 billion to $8.15 billion. On the positive note, this is likely the low point of the year and the Fall looks a lot stronger, starting with It: Chapter Two this coming weekend. More...

Weekend Estimates: Everyone Takes it Easy on Labor Day

September 1st, 2019

There were no wide releases this weekend, so I really thought the holdovers would hold on a lot better than they did. According to estimates, Angel Has Fallen has fallen 46% during its second weekend of release to $11.58 million and is projected to earn $15 million over the four-day weekend. A 46% sophomore stint decline would have been great, if this weren’t a holiday weekend. As it is, it’s a little disappointing, but the film will still do well enough to earn a profit. ... “Profitable disappointment.” How many times can that phrase be used this year? More...

Friday Estimates: Holdovers Also Go on Holiday

August 31st, 2019

There were no new wide releases on Friday, and sadly the holdovers didn’t thrive as a result. It’s going to be a brutal weekend at the box office. Angel Has Fallen topped the chart on Friday, but wasn’t able to match expectations with $2.9 million. That said, it is still on pace for $15 million over the full four-day weekend for a two-week total of $44 million, which is a good result for this time of year. More...

Weekend Predictions: New Releases Go on Holidays

August 29th, 2019

It’s the final weekend of the summer, Labor Day weekend. Officially it is the final weekend of the summer, but if you’ve been paying attention to the box office, then you know summer really ended with the release of Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw weeks ago. This long weekend, movie studios have just given up and there are no wide, or even semi-wide releases to talk about. This means the top five will look about the same as it did last weekend with Angel Has Fallen on top, while some of the holdovers, specifically Good Boys and The Lion King, should take advantage of the lack of competition. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Crazy Rich Asians remained the top film at the box office and will likely beat any of this week’s offerings. In fact, none of the films playing this year will earn as much over four days as Crazy Rich Asians did over three. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Angel has a Divine Debut

August 27th, 2019

Angel Has Fallen led the way at the weekend with $21.38 million. There were some other pleasant surprises in the top ten and this helped the overall box office to a surprise win. It was down 9.6% from last weekend to $108 million; however, this was 5.6% higher than the same weekend last year and we haven’t had many reasons to celebrate in the year-over-year competition, so let’s focus on that. Year-to-date, 2019 is still behind 2018 and is so by nearly identical margins as last weekend at 6.3% or $500 million. This is still a deep hole to try and climb out of, especially since there are only four months left in the year, and I will be happy if we can just cut that gap in half by the end of the year. More...

Weekend Estimates: Angel Doesn’t Fall, Overcome Can’t, Ready Was Ready

August 25th, 2019

There is some good news to talk about and that’s been depressingly rare this year. Angel Has Fallen is beating expectations with an estimated opening of $21.25 million. This opening is just behind London Has Fallen’s debut. Additionally, Angel has better reviews and matched the previous film’s A minus from CinemaScore, so it should have similar legs. It is too soon to tell how it will do internationally, but given the franchise’s performance so far, I remain optimistic. More...

Friday Estimates: Angel Rises from London

August 24th, 2019

Angel Has Fallen earned an estimated $7.9 million on Friday. Amazingly, this is an improvement over the $7.51 million earned by London has Fallen during its opening day. Most people, myself included, assumed this film would suffer a deep decline. This film also earned better reviews, while both films earned an A minus from CinemaScore. On the other hand, the film did earn less during the 24-hour Friday period, so that suggests a slightly smaller opening weekend. Even so, it will beat our prediction with just over $21 million. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Angel Has Fallen Rises to Franchise High

August 23rd, 2019

Angel Has Fallen had the best previews in the franchise earning $1.5 million last night, putting it on pace for about $15 million over the weekend. This matches our expectations nearly perfectly and should be enough to keep Lionsgate happy. More...

Weekend Predictions: Summer Slows to a Crawl

August 22nd, 2019

There are three wide releases this week, but only one of them, Angel Has Fallen, is widely expected to do anything at the box office. Overcomer is a faith-based film and those are a risk at the box office, but the people behind this one do have a good track record. Finally there’s Ready or Not, the widest ever release for Fox Searchlight and its reviews are easily the best of the week, but the buzz suggests that won’t be enough to thrive. This weekend last year, Crazy Rich Asians dipped just 6% earning just over $24 million. No film is going to match that figure this week. There’s a chance all three wide releases won’t match that figure this week, combined. More...

2019 Preview: August

August 1st, 2019

July bounced back from June with both Spider-Man: Far from Home and The Lion King getting to $1 billion worldwide. Domestically, we are still behind 2018’s pace by more than $400 million, but that’s a substantial improvement over where we were at the start of the month. August should continue this winning streak, at least initially. Hobbs and Shaw could open with close to $100 million, but the only other film opening this month that has a real shot at $100 million in total is Dora and the Lost City of Gold. Last August, both Crazy Rich Asians and The Meg topped $100 million, while Christopher Robin came within 1% of that milestone. This August might be better at the very top, but I don’t think the top three this month will top the top three last month. Maybe if we get a surprise hit, it will, but I’m not willing to bet on that. On the other hand, unless something dramatic happens, 2019 should at least come close to matching last year’s pace and that’s better than most months have done this year. More...