Weekend estimates: Freaky top at the box office in an ailing theatrical market

November 22, 2020

Freaky

Freaky will remain top at the domestic box office this weekend in spite of a steep 66% decline from its opening weekend. Its win at the box office was practically guaranteed going into the weekend, with Vanguard, the only new wide release, playing in a more modest 1,375 theaters for indie distributor Gravitas Ventures (it is now projected to open with $400,000). Freaky’s steep decline was also expected, with our model predicting a $1.56 million weekend and a decline of 57%. The fact that it fell 20% short of that low figure is a measure of how audience attitudes are changing towards the theatrical experience as COVID-19 cases rise steeply across the United States.



Every returning film is falling short of our model’s prediction this weekend, with an average miss of 20%. Since the model uses results from previous weekends to estimate how the pandemic is affecting moviegoing, this decline is a good first approximation of the percentage of people who might have been inclined to go see a movie last weekend are now thinking better of it. Our model is quite cautious in making adjustments though. In spite of poor results over the past couple of weeks, the model has only moved its estimate of the proportion of regular moviegoers who are going to theaters right now from 36% last weekend to 34% this weekend, and will adjust to 33% next weekend. Taken alone, the performance of Freaky last weekend and Vanguard this weekend would put those numbers at 23% last weekend and just 17% this weekend. Those are sobering figures, particularly since they are independent of the number of theaters that are open, which reduces box office by another 50%.

In short, we’re a long way from recovery, and going backwards.

International Markets

International markets aren’t looking much better, with closures and restrictions in many markets. Freaky will make about $1.05 million in 25 international territories this weekend, for a total of $3.652 million to date. It will be the biggest opener in the Netherlands, which is opening back up this weekend with a 30-person per screen limit, and will earn $168,000 there. Its top market remains Australia, with $249,000 for the weekend and $780,000 in total.

Trolls: World Tour will earn another $417,000 internationally this weekend for $42.853 million in total. It’ll pick up $163,000 from Australia this time around, for $5.804 million to date there.

The top-grossing studio release internationally this weekend will be Warner Bros.’ The Witches, which will pick up a projected $1.2 million in 23 markets for a total to date of $15.1 million. Brazil leads the way with $216,000 on its opening weekend. The film has earned $2.6 million in Mexico, with another $169,000 this weekend. Russia is its best territory overall at $4.1 million.

Meanwhile, Tenet is creeping towards $300 million internationally. It will pick up another $740,000 outside the domestic market this weekend, taking its international total to $299.2 million. Its worldwide total now stands at $356 million. Australia shows up again the best territory, with $341,000 for the weekend. The film has made $9.7 million there so far.

- Weekend studio estimates
- Weekend predictions
- Weekend theater counts

Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Trolls: World Tour, The Witches, Tenet, Freaky, Ji Xian Feng