Weekend predictions: Judas and the Black Messiah should win the weekend

February 12, 2021

The welcome arrival of two new wide releases and the combination of Valentine’s Day on Sunday and President’s Day on Monday should cause an uptick at the box office this weekend. Judas and the Black Messiah is the film most likely to top the chart, according to our model, while Land is set for a more modest result but should make it into the top six.

A movie like Judas and the Black Messiah would usually open in around 1,500–2,000 theaters and hope to use good word of mouth and favorable reviews to expand. It certainly has the good reviews, with a 97% score on Rotten Tomatoes, and a lack of competition means it’ll debut in around 1,900 locations (Warner Bros. has not announced an exact figure). The problem for the film is that those are most likely the wrong 1,900 locations thanks to continued movie theater closures in major cities. Under normal circumstances, a film with this kind of pedigree should open with around $10 million. Under current conditions, our model is pegging its result at between $2.5 million and $3 million, somewhat behind the $4.8-million opening for The Little Things two weeks ago, but perhaps with a shot at equalling the $3.1 million earned by The Marksman in mid-January.

Land is another film that would usually look to grow an audience over time and use its appeal to a demographic that skews older to achieve a long run in theaters. The opening weekend for a film like this isn’t the be-all and end-all, in other words, and the model doesn’t think it’ll earn a tremendous amount. Most likely it’ll battle for fourth place with The Marksman, which is now in its fifth weekend. Anything close to, or over, $1 million should be considered a victory for Robin Wright’s directorial debut. Its reviews, at 68% positive on Rotten Tomatoes, are decent, but it faces stiff competition from Judas and the Black Messiah and Minari (which opens in limited release this weekend), and could get lost in the shuffle. A place outside the top six wouldn’t be a huge surprise.

The Croods: A New Age is once more the film to watch if you’re trying to get a sense of the market in general. It should land in second place again this weekend. The model doesn’t adjust for holiday weekends at the moment, because they haven’t varied much from other weekends recently. Anything over $1.5 million for Croods would be a good sign for the market, and a combined box office of over $8 million for the top six may be a sign that holidays are beginning to mean something again.

Bruce Nash

Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Croods: A New Age, The Little Things, Land, Minari, Judas and the Black Messiah, Robin Wright