Weekend estimates: F9 projected to earn $70 million on opening weekend
June 27, 2021
F9: The Fast Saga will post an opening weekend right in line with Friday-morning expectations, with Universal projecting, as of Sunday morning, that the action movie will earn $70 million this weekend. That’s easily the biggest weekend of the year so far, beating The Quiet Place: Part II’s $47.5 million over the three-day portion of Memorial Day weekend. All told, we should see a $100-million weekend in movie theaters for the first time since March 6, 2020.
As I noted on Friday, our model’s prediction for F9 depended on whether I used its core estimate for moviegoer attendance (which is currently 38%), an estimate based on recent releases (51%), or an estimate based solely on the performance of recent action movies (66%). I used the middle of those numbers in our official prediction, which translated into a predicted $54.5 million weekend. If I’d used the action-movie estimate, our prediction would have been $70.6 million. It goes without saying that I wish I’d used the 66% estimate, if only for bragging rights.
However one slices it though, this is a very solid performance. The film appears to have reached about 65% of its target audience, which is in line with recent action movies, and impressive considering the raw numbers involved. It is projected to earn $16,750 per theater, which is a high point for movies in the top 10, beating the $14,199 earned by Demon Slayer on its opening weekend. F9’s opening weekend is also higher than the $60 million earned by Hobbs & Shaw on its opening weekend.
Our model now estimates that 43% of regular moviegoers are attending theaters, based on the performance of the 20 most recent wide releases. The figure for action movies is 65% (which is actually down just a shade after this weekend). All-in-all this is another step towards recovery at the box office. Roll on Black Widow!
Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com
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Filed under: Weekend Estimates, F9: The Fast Saga, A Quiet Place: Part II