Weekend projections: Jurassic World holds off Lightyear for weekend win

June 19, 2022

Lightyear

Lightyear will post an opening 3-day weekend of $51 million, according to Disney’s Sunday-morning estimate. That’s a slightly disappointing number for a Pixar film, although not unprecedented (Cars 3 earned $53.7 million on its opening weekend in mid-June 2017, for example). After decent previews on Thursday, the Toy Story spin-off has run out of gas a bit as the weekend has worn on, and Jurassic World: Dominion will have a come-from-behind victory with Universal projecting $58.66 million for the dino movie.

Here’s how the domestic numbers look as of Sunday (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…



Lightyear’s $51 million is below what every iteration of our model predicted on Friday. Its “par score”, given the model’s assessment that the market has recovered to 71% of its pre-pandemic level, was $54.3 million, so it’s not far off what might have been hoped for. However, pre-release tracking suggested it would top that number, and $5.2 million in previews suggested it would do so quite easily. Failing to beat Jurassic World: Dominion, which itself fell 60% from its opening weekend, is perhaps the biggest disappointment. It’s not the only Pixar movie to open in second place, but it’s only the third time it’s happened: The Good Dinosaur came in second over Thanksgiving, 2015; and Inside Out took second place when it opened against the second weekend of Jurassic World in June, 2015.

Maybe Pixar has a dinosaur curse? Or perhaps the studio returned to the Toy Story well one time too many?

The 60% fall for Dominion is a shade better than the model predicted, and virtually identical to the 59% second-weekend decline for Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom. That outing of the franchise had earned $266 million at this point in its run and finished with $417 million domestically. Dominion has $249.8 million, and looks likely to end just shy of $400 million in total. Universal will settle for that, I’m sure.

Top Gun: Maverick continues its fantastic run with another $44 million this weekend, and stands at $466 million in total domestically. $500 million is a done deal at this point, and, even if its 19% decline from last weekend is largely thanks to a Fathers Day boost, it should manage well over $550 million in total.

Top Gun’s performance is notable for the fact that it will finish in third place in spite of earning over $40 million this weekend. The last time the top three all earned over $40 million was the weekend of June 21, 2013, when Monsters University, World War Z, and Man of Steel all pulled off the feat. This is only the fourth time it’s happened in history, with the weekends of December 25, 2009 and May 27, 2005 being the other occasions. (Thanks to Edward Douglas for pointing this out on Twitter!)

In spite of the top 3 all topping $40 million, the market isn’t showing much depth at the moment. But Elvis, Minions: The Rise of Gru, and Thor: Love and Thunder should give us a strong top six by mid-July.

- Studio weekend projections
- All-time biggest weekends - All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

Bruce Nash,