Weekend predictions: Prey for the Devil won’t challenge Black Adam at the top
October 28, 2022
After a solid $67-million opening, Black Adam will continue at the top of the box office chart this weekend, even with a steep drop in its second outing. Prey for the Devil looks likely to finish in third place this weekend, although its box office prospects may improve a little as the weekend goes on and Halloween draws closer.
Here’s what the model thought of the Prey for the Devil’s prospects going into the weekend.
Non-sequel, PG-13 rated, supernatural horror movies tend to land somewhere in the $9 million range on opening weekend (at least traditionally). Prey for the Devil got a solid theater count and has had good buzz, but the current weakness of the theatrical market means the model thought that an opening a little under $8 million was to be expected.
The Thursday preview numbers are perhaps slightly disappointing in that context, although far from awful.
The preview numbers point towards a weekend of $6.2 million, but there’s quite a bit of uncertainty in that figure as PG-13 horror can have good legs through the weekend if a film gets good word of mouth. The model’s final prediction (as always, a blended average of the fundamentals and previews predictions) means that Prey for the Devil could top Smile to claim the distinction of being the “number one horror movie in the country” over Halloween weekend. But the full set of predictions for the weekend show how close the race could be.
Here’s what our model thinks the top 10 as a whole will look like…
A 59% decline for Black Adam would still leave it over $20 million ahead of its nearest competitor. The model thinks Ticket to Paradise will finish second, and that seems like a fairly safe bet given that it’s targeted towards an older demographic.
That leaves several horror movies in the middle of the pack, where they are joined by the two dramas getting wide expansions this weekend. I think it’s fair to say that our model for wide expansions isn’t very robust, which is due to the small number of films that get platform releases these days (or, to be more specific, expand wide after a platform release). I think the predictions for Till and TÁR are most likely too high, but hopefully they will at least build our understanding of how platform expansions work under current market conditions.
Likewise, I’ll be looking for numbers from Call Jane, which is opening in 1,070 theaters this weekend. It probably won’t make the top 10, but definitely has an outside shot at doing so. The Bad Guys can’t be ruled out either as it returns in 1,478 theaters.
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Black Adam, Call Jane, The Bad Guys, Prey for the Devil, Ticket to Paradise, Till, TÁR, Smile