Weekend projections: The Little Mermaid doing swimmingly Stateside, choppier in international waters

May 28, 2023

The Little Mermaid

The Little Mermaid will land almost exactly in line with our model’s Friday morning prediction, according to Walt Disney Pictures. With $95.5 million projected for the 3-day weekend and $118 million over four days, the film will most likely have the fifth-best Memorial Day opening, a little ahead of Aladdin, which opened with $91.5 million in three days, and $116.8 million over four days in 2019. Internationally, the film is doing less well, with Disney projecting $68 million this weekend.

Here’s how the domestic numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…



The domestic number for Little Mermaid is just fine, although fractionally below our Friday-morning prediction. It is getting strong approval ratings from its audience with an A CinemaScore and 95% Rotten Tomatoes audience score. As expected, its audience is skewing young, with 31% under 18, and female (68% vs. 32% male). Disney is hoping for a long run, and our model thinks $300 million domestically is still very much on the cards.

The international numbers are more worrying. Mexico is the film’s biggest market to date, but it is expected to open with only $8.5 million there. The United Kingdom, where it’s headed to $6.3 million on debut, is the only other country where it is earning more than $5 million on opening weekend. Its international total of $68 million so far still gives it a shot at $500 million or $600 million worldwide. In comparison, Aladdin picked up $121 million from international territories on its opening weekend, which helped propel it to a final total of over $1 billion.

Overall, Disney is probably content with the opening, but unless it has a spectacular hold domestically and internationally next weekend, it’s some way short of a smash hit.

- Studio weekend projections
- All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

- Help support The Numbers with a small monthly or one-time donation.

Bruce Nash,