Weekend projections: Barbie hits a billion, Meg 2 takes second place

August 6, 2023

Barbie

Barbie will hit $1 billion at the worldwide box office today, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday-morning projection, making it the second film released in 2023 to hit that mark (The Super Mario Bros. Movie is the other, with $1.36bn to date). Domestically, Barbie will bring in another $53 million or so this weekend, taking it past $450 million in total. Meg 2: The Trench looks like it will win a tight three-way race for second place with around $30 million.

Here’s how the domestic numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…



Barbie’s $53 million will be the 11th-biggest 3rd weekend for a movie in history, a slight dip after posting the 7th-biggest 2nd weekend, and notably behind Mario’s $59.9-million 3rd weekend. Our head-to-head comparison chart between the two films shows Barbie continuing to outpace Mario handily though thanks to much higher Summertime weekday numbers—$11.8 million last Thursday compared to Mario’s $4.9 million on the same day in its run, for example. With schools out for the rest of August, by and large, Barbie will most likely end up the winner between the two films at the domestic box office. It has a steeper hill to climb internationally, and Mario may still end the year as the top-grossing film worldwide.

The battle for second place was as tight as expected, and it’s too soon to entirely rule out the possibility that the order of movies will change when final numbers are in on Monday. Meg 2 should hold on for second place though, and has held on well through the weekend. This looked like a movie that was review-proof, and that’s how it has turned out. Oppenheimer is expected to land in third place and is falling some way short of our model’s prediction for the weekend. That may be an indication that the Barbenheimer effect is dwindling and the film is heading towards a more normal trajectory. $200 million is still an impressive performance for an R-rated drama though, and Oppenheimer has cruised past that number this weekend, with $300 million in its sights.

Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem has an outside chance of topping Oppenheimer for third, but will most likely land fourth this weekend. Combined with earnings from Wednesday and Thursday, it’ll have a $43-million five-day opening. Paramount was probably hoping it would have less competition when it scheduled the film to open on a Wednesday, but the strategy probably paid off overall. Notably, it’s earned a million more than Haunted Mansion, which stands at $42 million after two weekends in release and will start losing theaters soon.

The standout performer of the weekend is arguably Talk to Me with a strong hold in its second weekend. It will end the weekend with around $22 million and has proven good counter-programming so far. The Last Voyage of the Demeter will provide it with real competition next weekend.

Overall, we’re heading for a weekend with around $175 million in combined box office for all films, which feels a little soft after the mayhem of the past couple of weeks. It’s still far ahead of the August 5 weekend last year when Bullet Train topped the chart with $30 million (virtually identical to Meg 2’s debut), and all movies combined for $92 million in total. We’ve now had 18 consecutive weekends with a total box office over $100 million, and we should see that trend continue for a little while longer, even if September and October are looking short of big new releases.

- Studio weekend projections
- All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash,