Weekend projections: Equalizer’s $34-million debut makes it most consistent franchise in history

September 3, 2023

The Equalizer 3

The Equalizer 3 will fall short of a franchise-best opening, but will maintain the remarkable consistency of the franchise by opening with a projected $34.5 million from Friday to Sunday, according to Sony’s Sunday-morning estimate. That falls neatly between the openings of The Equalizer 2 ($36.0 million) and The Equalizer ($34.1 million) to make this the most consistent franchise in movie history.

Here’s how the domestic numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…



The Equalizer 3 will have the second-best Labor Day opening weekend of all time, behind only Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, which posted a lavish $75.4 million back in 2021. Its four day projected total is $42 million.

The franchise’s remarkable consistency is shown in the analysis below, which calculates the percentage standard deviation in opening weekend across a franchise (click on the image for a full list across all franchises). The Ocean’s Eleven movies previously held the record with a 5% deviation. The Equalizer movies have a deviation of just 2.3%:

Also on the record lists this weekend, Barbie became the 14th film to pass $600 million at the domestic box office. It is finally showing signs that it’s running out of steam though, with a 29% decline from last weekend in spite of the holiday weekend. Its comparison with Avatar: The Way of Water and The Super Mario Bros. Movie now point towards a final total perhaps a little short of $650 million.

One other notable performer this weekend is Bottoms, which will outdo expectations with a shade over $3 million this weekend from a modest 715 theaters. That’s nearly double what our model predicted on Friday morning, and enough to warrant some further expansion.

- Studio weekend projections
- All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide

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Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Ocean's Eleven