Analysis: US ticket prices fell in Q2, but 4% inflation rate sticks

September 14, 2023

Movie theater

The average price of of a movie ticket in US theaters fell to $10.75 in the second quarter, based on our analysis of reported averages from major theater chains. That’s down 6 cents from the first quarter, when averages were boosted by the long run of Avatar: The Way of Water on premium screens. It’s up 45 cents from the average in the second quarter of 2022, maintaining an annualized inflation rate of 4%—the same as Q1 and the annual increase for 2022.

As usual, our analysis is based on the average ticket prices reported in the SEC filings of the major theater chains AMC, Cinemark and Regal, modeled against the average ticket price reported by the National Association of Theater Owners (NATO) and/or The Cinema Foundation. NATO used to publish quarterly and annual estimates, but only official annual numbers are being made available for now, so we’re filling in the gaps with our estimates.

Here are the precise parameters for the model based on our latest analysis, along with a chart of how our estimates compare with the “official” figures from those trade organizations.:

In the past, our model has very closely tracked the industry’s recognized standard. That doesn’t guarantee it will continue to do so, but we expect our estimates to be within 5% of the actual figure. As the table below shows, we have consistently been within 20 cents of the official figure since the pandemic. That means the actual average ticket price was almost certainly between $10.55 and $10.95 between April and June. Here’s the full rundown since the beginning of the pandemic:

Q3 has traditionally had lower ticket prices than other times of the year, mostly due to the lack of major new releases. The average is further brought down by National Cinema Day, which attracted 8.5 million moviegoers this year. If the current 4% inflation rate holds, we’d expect the average ticket price in Q3 to be around $10.25. We’ll have that figure around Thanksgiving, and keep you posted if any further announcements are made from the trade organizations.

We’re making our quarterly average ticket price estimates freely available, so please go ahead and use them in your own projects. We just ask that you credit The Numbers as your source.

- To get quarterly updates to average ticket prices, box office predictions for the next 12 months, and more, please subscribe to The Numbers Bankability and Box Office Report.

Sebastian Gomez and Bruce Nash,