Weekend predictions: Wonka looking for something in the 30s

December 15, 2023

Wonka

Wonka will land with a solid opening, likely somewhere between $30 million and $40 million, this weekend, based on our model’s forecast and a decent $3.5 million in preview earnings on Thursday. That will be easily the best weekend ever for a live action musical not based on an existing show, beating the $15.5 million earned by The Greatest Showman over its second weekend back in December, 2017. The best weekend for any live-action musical is $42.0 million, earned by High School Musical 3: Senior Year back in 2008. We don’t have enough data yet to be sure that record won’t be broken, but it would require very good legs through the weekend.

Here’s our model’s baseline prediction for Wonka:

The preview numbers point to it doing somewhat better:

There’s a real lack of data on musicals opening on a regular weekend and reporting Thursday previews, so our prediction comes with a fairly wide range of uncertainty. $40 million doesn’t look out of the question, but something in the $30-millions looks the most likely. The real question for this film will be its legs. Based on reviews and audience feedback so far, things look promising, but the holidays will be crucial.

Here’s what the model thinks that top 10 will look like.

We don’t have theater counts or a weekday numbers from Fathom Events for Christmas with the Chosen: Holy Night, so our prediction for that is speculative. Its predecessor earned over $4 million last year, so it could yet end up a couple of places higher in the chart.

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Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Greatest Showman, Wonka, Christmas with the Chosen: Holy Night