Weekend projections: Aquaman barely causes a ripple on slow pre-holiday weekend

December 24, 2023

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom

A big selection of new releases won’t help prop up takings at movie theaters this weekend as Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom heads for an opening three-day weekend of about $28.1 million, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday-morning projection. That’s less than half as much as Aquaman made on its opening weekend back in 2018. Christmas Eve falling on a Sunday will further blunt earnings as we head into what will be a long Christmas week.

Here’s how the domestic numbers look as of Sunday morning (click on the image for the full chart of films reporting so far)…



There’s really no positive way to spin Aquaman 2’s debut. Not only is it less than half what Aquaman made on its opening weekend, it’s also less than half of Black Adam’s $67-million start in October last year, and less than Shazam! Fury of the Gods earned when it opened in March. At the time, Shazam! looked like an outlier, but it now looks like the harbinger of things to come. 2023 has been a dreadful year for super hero movies, which have collectively earned $1.44 billion at the domestic box office this year, compared to $2.05 billion last year. That $600-million decline is the reason we’ll see 2023 end up with less than $9 billion in total.

Lost Kingdom’s slight saving grace is its international numbers, which will add up to $80.1 million over the four-day weekend, according to the studio. That overseas performance is dominated by China, with an expected $30.4-million debut. Click here for full international details for Aquaman so far.

There are some glimmers of good news on the domestic chart this weekend. Our model really struggled to adapt to the unusual timing of Christmas Eve, so over-predicted films like Migration, Anyone But You, and The Iron Claw, all of which are posting decent openings considering they’ll have what amounts to a ten-day weekend ahead of them.

Likewise the two Indian movies to land in the top 10, Salaar: Part 1, Ceasefire and Dunki.

Wonka and The Boy and the Heron are both enjoying good holds considering the general demand pattern for this weekend. Wonka in particular could enjoy a very strong run this week, once festivities really get under way. It will up about $33.2 million internationally this weekend for a running total of $171.3 million internationally and $254.9 million worldwide. Unsurprisingly, the United Kingdom remains its strongest territory, with another $8.2 million this weekend for a total of $38.1 million there so far. Its full international performance so far is recorded here.

With three new wide releases tomorrow, there’s a unusually long list of films to choose from this holiday week. The studios will be at various levels of shutdown, but we’ll share anything they report. Expect a lot of estimates and some gaps in the next few days, and a big data update in early January.

In the meantime, Happy Holidays to all, and Merry Christmas to those who celebrate!

- Studio weekend projections
- All-time top-grossing movies in North America
- All-time top-grossing movies worldwide
- Holiday-season musical comparisons

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