The Numbers Business Report: 2026 Q2 Box Office Prediction

September 29, 2025

The latest issue of The Numbers Business Report continues to build out our early predictions for 2026, this time shifting attention to the second quarter of next year. Our feature article provides our first full prediction, as well as detailed movie-by-movie forecasts for the major releases scheduled for that period.

Similar to previous years, 2026 should feature several titles earning over $100 million, primarily from established and highly successful franchises. Examples include Super Mario Bros., whose previous film grossed over $500 million domestically, making it the highest-grossing animated movie of its year, and Toy Story, a franchise that has accumulated more than $1.4 billion domestically over the past 30 years. Other notable franchises with major releases include Star Wars, Scary Movie, and Mortal Kombat.

There is also potential for the launch of a new franchise with the live-action adaptation of Masters of the Universe. In addition, two non-franchise titles stand out: Michael, based on the life of Michael Jackson, and Is God Is, adapted from the play of the same name.

At this stage, our schedule also includes an Untitled Film Directed by Steven Spielberg. Our forecast for that is based on his long and impressive track record, but we might make some alterations when more details on the project become available.

We’ve updated our methodology by moving away from market strength adjustments and instead focusing on comparable films released from 2022 onward. This shift enables the model to more accurately capture recent post-pandemic market behavior. In select cases, we still reference older comps if they are especially relevant to the project. By month, our current standouts are:

April: The Super Mario Galaxy Movie ($606m)
May: The Devil Wears Prada 2 ($136m) and The Mandalorian & Grogu ($370m)
June: Toy Story 5 ($440m) and Masters of the Universe ($142m)

The Mandalorian & Grogu, despite its late-May release, is expected to have a strong opening weekend that will significantly impact May’s totals.

To discover our full official prediction for the second quarter, and revised prediction for the first quarter, subscribe to The Numbers Business Report.

Also in this edition...

We have our final pre-release predictions for all of October’s wide releases, including Tron: Ares and Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (among many others), along with our full 2025 prediction.

Our domestic and international release schedules cover all films being released domestically over the next month, and all major international releases in 15 territories, organized by date and by movie.

For the home market, we have a monthly update on the theatrical window for new releases, including trend analysis. We’ve also added information on what films are available or coming soon to streaming services.

On the talent front, we include Bankability values for the top 250 creative talents in the business, expanding our unique perspective on the people in front of, and behind the camera.

Alongside The Business Report, we are publishing updated six-week predictions every week. Those have day-by-day predictions of the top 10 and the expected market size over the next 42 days. Unlock this addition through a subscription. Click here to subscribe.

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Filed under: Star Wars, Toy Story, Scary Movie, Mortal Kombat, DC Extended Universe, Mario