This graph shows Mackenzie Foy’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
I knew The Nutcracker and the Four Realms was in trouble when Disney didn’t push Christopher Robin over $100 million at the domestic box office. At that point, every film they released in 2018 had hit the century mark, so there was a chance they could have had every film released in a calendar year get to that milestone. They wouldn’t pass up that chance, unless they knew The Nutcracker and the Four Realms wasn’t going to get there. It didn’t get there. It barely managed to get halfway to $100 million. Is the film as bad as its box office numbers? Or was it unfairly ignored?
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October continued 2018’s phenomenal box office run, for the most part. There were a couple of films that missed expectations by $10 million or more, but on the other hand, Vemon and Halloween were smash hits and are now the first and second biggest October debuts of all time. Furthermore, 2018’s lead over 2017 is, as I’m writing this, just shy of $1 billion and if 2018 can maintain this lead, it will be one of the biggest year-over-year increases of all time. It won’t. The fun times end now. Why is that? Last November was amazing. There were only eight wide releases, but six of them earned more than $100 million. Three of those hit $200 million, including Thor: Ragnarok, which earned over $300 million. This year, there are a lot more movies opening in November, but it is a case of quantity over quality. No movie is expected to come close to $300 million and it would take a bit of luck just to have five $100 million hits. The film I’m looking forward to the most is Ralph Breaks the Internet, while it, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, and Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald are all aiming for $200 million this month. Fortunately, even if 2018 is behind 2017’s pace by around $300 million, 2018 has built up such a large lead that it should still go into December with an insurmountable lead at the box office.
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Interstellar is the latest film from Christopher Nolan, a director who has performed amazingly well at the box office. He's also never directed a film that earned bad reviews. Is this film as good as his past record? Or are there flaws starting to show in his directing style?
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Pretty much every year, the Oscar nominations for Best Animated Feature includes one surprise nomination. I don't mean one film that didn't earn strong enough reviews to be an Oscar-contender (although that also happens a lot) but a film that most mainstream moviegoers haven't heard of before the nominations are announced. Last year, that film was Ernest and Celestine. The film only got a token release in theaters, but it is coming out on DVD and Blu-ray Combo Pack this week. Did it earn the nomination? And is the Blu-ray Combo Pack worth picking up?
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It is Oscar weekend, so it should come as no surprise there are not a lot of limited releases with the usual target audience. Art house aficionados will be paying more attention to the Awards than to new releases. Ernest & Celestine is the lone exception, which is the only Oscar-nominated film on this week's list and the best reviewed as well. Most of the rest of the movies are earning reviews that range from mixed to outright terrible. The Lunchbox could be the break-out hit of the weekend, if there is a break-out hit.
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Twilight came out in 2008 to a mixture of high buzz and abject horror. There were a lot of people who were major fans of the book series by Stephenie Meyer, while others consider Stephenie Meyer the worst author of all time. That might be a bit harsh. The first movie opened with mixed reviews, but smashed through all expectations with nearly $200 million domestically. A year later, New Moon came out and despite earning just 27% positive reviews. That's awful any way you look at it, but even so, it earned nearly $300 million at the box office. Clearly this franchise is critic-proof and I'm under no delusion that any of my criticisms will stop anyone from buying this 10-disc Blu-ray box set. I'm so convinced that no one will change their minds over my opinion of the movie that I'm going to keep that portion of the review to a minimum and concentrate on the extras instead. After all, anyone interested in this box set has already made up their mind about the movie and just want to know if this box set has enough extras to be worth the price.
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For the most part, June was a really strong month at the box office with nearly every film either matching expectations, or at least coming close enough to call it a victory. Looking forward, there are a dozen films opening wide in July, more or less. One of them, The Smurfs 2, is opening on a Wednesday, so I'm going to hold off talking about that movie till the August preview. Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain is opening in less than 1000 theaters, but it has a shot at reaching the top ten during its opening weekend. If we include both of them, there are twelve films, but I think it is better to stick with the ten truly wide, truly July openings. Of these, Despicable Me 2 is clearly going to be the biggest hit at the box office. It could become the second biggest hit of the year so far. It is not the only film that could be a $100 million hit. In fact, there are six films opening in July that I think have a better than 50% chance of reaching that level. There is currently only one film that I think won't at least become a midlevel hit. By comparison in 2012, there were three $100 million movies, led by The Dark Knight Rises, but the rest of the new releases struggled. There's no chance any movie opening this month will top $400 million, in fact, it is quite possible no film will get to $300 million. That said, 2013 has a lot better depth, so it might come out on top in the end.
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