February 22nd, 2015
New releases occupied four of the top five spots on the DVD sales chart for the week ending February 8. The top spot went to Dracula Untold, with 237,000 units sold and $4.16 million in consumer spending during its first week of release. With this strong result, I think the odds of this film becoming the first of a franchise have increased.
Second place, just barely, went to The Best of Me, with 227,000 units sold and $3.45 million in consumer spending. The Best of Me edged out John Wick, sending it to third place with 227,000 units sold and $3.44 million in spending.
February 22nd, 2015
The Blu-ray sales chart was dominated by two new releases. John Wick led the way with 301,000 units / $6.30 million for an opening week Blu-ray share of 57%. The film was an action film with visual style, but not a ton of visual effects, so this is better than expected.
February 2nd, 2015
It is a slow week on the home market, and will remain a slow week until the winter blockbusters start coming out. According to Amazon.com, this week the biggest release is John Wick. Granted, the Blu-ray Combo Pack is Pick of the Week material, but the film only made $43 million at the box office, so it likely won't sell a lot on the home market. The other two contenders for Pick of the Week are The Overnighters on DVD or Blu-ray and Dear White People - Buy from Amazon: DVD or Blu-ray. Are three are worth picking up. The Overnighters is arguably the best, but I love the Film Noir style in John Wick, so I'm awarding that one the Pick of the Week.
November 10th, 2014
We had two potential monster hits go at it over the weekend and it appears the competition was a little too much and neither Big Hero 6 nor Interstellar lived up to lofty expectations, although Big Hero 6 was close. Combined the two movies earned more than $100 million over the weekend, which is reason to celebrate, even if the rest of the box office barely registered. Overall, the box office rose 65% from last weekend reaching $157 million. Wow. Unfortunately, this was still 6.5% lower than the same weekend last year. Had Interstellar matched expectations, 2014 would have come out on top of the year-over-year comparison. Hopefully it will have better legs than Thor: The Dark World did, or this weekend could be another loss. I'm hopeful, because The Dark World was a pretty big Fanboy film.
November 3rd, 2014
Halloween is over and the box office took a real hit. Ouija was the only film that was a pleasant surprise topping expectations and earning first place. Nightcrawler matched expectations, but due to the competition, landed in second place. The other two films of note: Before I Go to Sleep and Saw, were... well, the less said the better. Overall, the box office fell 18% to just $95 million. Worse still, this was 25% lower than the same weekend last year. There is mitigating circumstances, as this weekend last year was the first weekend of November and didn't have to suffer with Halloween landing on the Friday. Next weekend will bounce back, obviously, but 2014 is running out of time to catch up to 2013. Currently it is down by 3.3% at $8.33 billion to $8.62 billion.
October 30th, 2014
Tomorrow is Halloween, which is one of the worst days of the year as far as box office numbers are concerned. I would argue only Christmas Eve is worse. Nightcrawler is the only truly wide release of the week, but it is not expected to be a hit. It will likely earn first place, but with only around $10 million. There are two other films of note: Before I Go to Sleep and the tenth anniversary release of Saw. Before I Go to Sleep is the third release from Clarius Entertainment whose first two releases bombed horribly. This one is expected to finish somewhere in-between the first two at the box office. The Saw franchise is the highest grossing horror franchise of all time, but will people really go to theaters to see it? I would assume fans of these movies likely own the film on Blu-ray, so staying at home would be more appealing. Worse still, this weekend last year was the first weekend of November and it shows. There were five films that earned more than $10 million, led by Ender's Game. This year, we might have no movies earning more than $10 million. Ouch.
October 28th, 2014
As expected, Ouija won the race for first place, but it finished on the very low end of expectations. On the other hand, John Wick beat expectations earning second place. Overall, these two results balanced out, but this still resulted in the box office falling 12% from last weekend to $116 million. More importantly, it was 13% higher than the same weekend last year. 2014 is still behind 2013, but it is chipping away at the deficit, which has fallen to under $300 million at $8.20 billion to $8.49 billion. 2014 is still behind last year's pace by 3.4%, but if it can close that gap by the same amount in November and December, then at least by the end of the year, it will have closed the gap enough to call it a spiritual victory.
October 23rd, 2014
It is not a good week at the box office for new releases. There are only two films opening wide, one of which is earning terrible reviews and the other is earning terrible buzz. At the moment, Ouija's Tomatometer Score is barely in the double-digits. That said, it is a horror film opening the week before Halloween, so it should make at least $20 million at the box office. On the other hand, John Wick's reviews are Award-worthy... but the buzz is so quiet, I doubt many award voters will see it. This weekend last year was led by Bad Grandpa, which opened in first place with $32.06. Maybe if Ouija is a surprise hit, it will match that figure. However, while 2013 looked better at the top, it had really weak depth beyond the top five, so 2014 will likely win in the year-over-year comparison.
October 17th, 2014
Next week, John Wick and Ouija both open wide, but Ouija is expected to make more during its opening weekend than John Wick is expected to make during its entire run. As such, it is the clear choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Ouija.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Annie Oakley: The Complete TV Series on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a previously reviewed TV on DVD release.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
September 30th, 2014
September is over and while it got off to a bad start, a really, really, truly terrible start, it actually ended on a bit of a strong note. Granted, no film has yet to reach $100 million, but The Maze Runner and The Equalizer both could get there in the end. As for October, we might go another month without a $100 million hit. There are a couple of films that have the potential to reach the century mark, Gone Girl and Fury. Hopefully they will get there, but given the recent box office woes, it is probably best to keep expectations low. Last October, there were two films that earned more than $100 million. Bad Grandpa just made it passed that mark. On the other hand, Gravity was a monster hit earning nearly $275 million. It you compare its run to this year's batch of films, it only ranks behind Guardians of the Galaxy. ... There's no way any film opening this month is going to match that. ... There no way the top two films will match that. ... The top three films might not match that. ... 2014 is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison and by the end of the month, it will be safe to say its chances of ever catching up to 2013 will be over. It is going to be a depressing month.