December 13th, 2018
The first instalment of our Holiday Gift Guide dealt with First-run Releases and the second instalment with, TV on DVD releases. The third installment of our Holiday Gift Guide deals with limited releases, classics, and foreign imports and this list can get out of hand rather quickly, so I will try and keep it to a dozen items or so, starting with...
More...
October 19th, 2018
It’s an excellent week for limited releases with a trio of amazing films that have great star power as well. Can You Ever Forgive Me?, What They Had, and Wildlife all have a shot at box office success. Not to mention several documentaries, like On Her Shoulders, Sharkwater Extinction, Transformer, that could do well in limited release.
More...
October 2nd, 2018
It’s an off week on the home market with no blockbusters to deal with. There are two solid midlevel hits, The First Purge and Sicario: Day of the Soldado, but neither of those are Pick of the Week contenders. (Ant-Man and the Wasp is also coming out this week, but only on Video on Demand). There are some high quality picks: Leave No Trace, Three Identical Strangers, Molly, The Spiral Staircase, and Hyouka. It was a close race, but in the end, I went with Leave No Trace Blu-ray as Pick of the Week.
More...
June 29th, 2018
There are not many limited releases on this week’s list and almost none of them have a real shot at mainstream success. That said, there are still several that are earning absolutely amazing reviews. The film with the best shot at mainstream success is probably Leave No Trace, with its 100% positive reviews. That said, I’m going to suggest something different, GLOW: Season Two on Netflix. It just started streaming today and I may have watched half of the season while working on this column.
More...
February 26th, 2017
The Independent Spirit Awards winners were handed out last night. While they are rarely a good predictor for the Oscars, Moonlight’s performance was so dominant that its chances of winning Oscars have ticked up a couple of percentage points.
More...
December 14th, 2016
After dealing with first-run releases and TV on DVD releases, we come to the instalment of our Holiday Gift Guide that deals with limited releases, classics, and foreign imports. This list should be longer than last week, but hopefully I won’t go overboard.
More...
November 23rd, 2016
The Independent Spirit Awards nominations were announced last night and thus the 2016 Awards Season begins. There were a few surprises and some snubs to discuss, but for the most part, there’s not a lot nominations that broke the established narrative. It’s because there isn’t really an established narrative. This means films that earn nominations here have a much better chance of doing well going forward and Moonlight looks like it could rise up as a result.
More...
August 1st, 2016
July did reasonably well, thanks mostly to The Secret Life of Pets, which will top $300 million shortly and could earn double its nearest competitor when all is said and done. That said, there were also a quartet of $100 million hits as well, so the month had good depth as well. August isn’t as lucky. There is one film that is expected to earn $100 million during its opening weekend, Suicide Squad, and one more that is expected to reach $100 million in total, Pete’s Dragon. There could be a surprise hit among the rest of the releases, (my long shot with a shot is Sausage Party) but for the most part, the rest of the wide releases would be happy with just $50 million at the box office. Last August was a disaster and Straight Outta Compton was the only hit of the month. Unless Suicide Squad bombs compared to expectations, 2016 will come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
More...
June 1st, 2016
May was great, as long as you don't compare it to last May. Captain America: Civil War was a monster hit and is closing in on $400 million, while both X-Men: Apocalypse and The Angry Birds Movie will earn over $100 million. Looking ahead, every week in June, there is one movie that should top $100 million; however, only Finding Dory is expected to make more than $200 million. In fact, that film is expected to make close to $400 million domestically and over $1 billion worldwide. Last June, there were two monster hits, Inside Out and Jurassic World, plus one $100 million hit, Spy. I don't see how 2016 will top that. Even if every film with a shot at $100 million gets to that milestone, 2016 still might not top last year's pace. Fortunately, 2016 does have a large lead and that could be enough to keep 2016 ahead of 2015's pace in the year-over-year competition. It could be really close at the end of the month, on the other hand.
More...
March 18th, 2016
Of the seven films on this week's list, five of them are earning excellent reviews and one of the other two is a Bollywood film with no reviews. Midnight Special was supposed to open wide, but that's not happening now. It could still find an audience in theaters. Additionally, Krisha is being released by A24 and that distributor has a very good track record.
More...
January 1st, 2016
2016 will begin the same way 2015 ended, with Star Wars: The Force Awakens on top. In fact, three of the five films that have the best shot at box office success in January are The Force Awakens, The Hateful Eight, and The Revenant, all of which opened in December. There are two true January releases that could also do really well, for this time of year: Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3. The rest of the releases are just hoping to become midlevel hits. Last January, American Sniper dominated earning more than $300 million. Its success could prevent 2016 from being ahead in the year-over-year comparison by the end of the month, but this year does have better depth.
More...
June 1st, 2014
Lone Survivor came out for an Oscar-qualifying run late in December of 2013, which seemed odd, because it didn't look like the typical Oscar-bait movie. However, it actually picked up a couple of Oscar nominations (for technical categories) and more impressively earned a WGA nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay, as well as SAG Award for Best Stunts. This lifts the expectations, but is this for the best? Does the film truly rise above the action genre?
More...
January 1st, 2014
It's the first month of the new year, but the biggest hit might be a film released in December. Last month ended on a slow note with all five Christmas day releases failing to become hits, some more than others. (It's a little too soon to tell if The Wolf of Wall Street or The Secret Life of Walter Mitty will do well enough to break even any time soon, but neither is a serious hit.) There are still some December releases that will likely remain on the charts through the opening weekends of January, while there are some films that opened in limited release last month with a scheduled wide release this month. Of the purely January releases, I would guess Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit will be the biggest hit. Even then, it won't live up to the previous films in the franchise, even if you don't take inflation into account. Most of the rest of the new releases will be happy if they can become midlevel hits. Last January was led by Mama, which earned more than $70 million. I think Shadow Recruit will top that figure at the box office, while there are a similar number of likely box office bombs opening this year as there were last year. 2014 could start out ahead of 2013's pace, but it likely won't be a huge difference either way.
More...