I think it’s a great week on the home market for a few reasons, one of which is selfish. Amazon finally got its act together and upcoming releases are appearing on the site so I can pre-plan weeks, which makes my job easier. It also is making my wallet very scared, because there are a number of amazing releases coming out soon. This includes several new releases this week that are worth picking up like Buffaloed, Emma., Justice League Dark: Apokolips War, etc. and those aren’t even the contenders for Pick of the Week. That list is limited to The Good Place: The Complete Series Blu-ray and The Quintessential Quintuplets: Season 1. In the end I went with The Good Place, which I think will have a wider appeal.
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Emma. is the latest adaptation of the Jane Austen novel of the same name. It was previously adapted a number of times, arguably most famously as Clueless back in 1995. The film earned excellent reviews and opened well in limited release, but it struggled when it tried to expand and was all but gone from theaters the weekend after. However, it also opened just as the Covid-19 pandemic became a serious threat in the United States and its box office numbers were obviously negatively impacted by those events. Is it worth checking out for fans of period pieces? Or would it have struggled even under better circumstances?
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The COVID-19 outbreak has hit all 50 states and in many of them it is a state of emergency. Mass theater closings hasn’t stopped all limited releases, but I assume Video on Demand will generate a lot more business this weekend. Because of the COVID-19 outbreak, there are so few theatrical releases that, starting this week, I am including made-for-VOD and streaming releases, including some original TV shows. We are also going to include theatrical releases that were fast-tracked to VOD this week. If you don't want to / can't hit theaters this week (and the overwhelming advice coming from the professionals is not to), you can watch some big movies early on the home market, including The Invisible Man, Onward, and others. Stay safe!
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We had a great start to the year, sort of. Most films that opened / expanded wide in January are going to miss expectations; however, Bad Boys for Life and 1917 are so much stronger than anticipated that they alone will more than make up the difference. Looking forward, Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) is almost guaranteed to be the biggest hit of the month. There are two questions. Firstly, is it going to top Bad Boys for Life and become the biggest hit of the year so far? Secondly, is it going to be the only $100 million hit of month? Hopefully the answers to those questions are yes and no respectively, but no to both is would still be good news overall. Sonic the Hedgehog is looking better than before and frankly Paramount needs a hit after a very troubling 2019. Meanwhile, there are several midlevel hits that could help the overall box office. Last February was a mixed month with some hits, like How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, but some disappointing results as well, like from The Lego Movie 2: The Second Part. I think it will be a close race in the year-over-year competition with 2020 winning some weeks and losing others.
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As expected, January was dominated by holdovers with Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Revenant leading the way. That's not to say there were no new releases that did well, as Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3 were hits with moviegoers. Looking forward, there is only one film that looks like a sure hit, Deadpool. There's a slim chance it could be a surprise $200 million hit. There's a much better chance it will be the only $100 million hit. Conversely, last February started with a $100 million hit coming out, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, while there were two other $100 million movies to come out that month, Fifty Shades of Grey and Kingsman: The Secret Service. Looks like 2016 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison.
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Austenland is a romantic comedy that opened in limited release last summer. That's not the right genre for a limited release, but it opened at about the $10,000 mark on the per theater chart and lasted long enough to hit $2 million at the box office. That's a better than expected run. Is the movie also better than expected? Or does it fall prey to the usual romcom clichés?
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