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Weekend Predictions: Spider-Man is Already Amazing

July 5th, 2012

The Amazing Spider-Man opened on Tuesday to better than expected numbers and should cruise to victory over the weekend, but it is not the only wide release this week. Katy Perry: Part of Me opens tonight while Savages opens tomorrow. They are not going to compete for top spot. In fact, very few people think they will compete with last week's winner, Ted, for second place and one or both could miss the top five entirely. Fortunately, the combined strength of the new releases, plus healthy holdovers, should help 2012 easily win over last year.

The Amazing Spider-Man opened better than expected on Tuesday with $35 million, but slipped on Wednesday to $23 million. This decline wasn't expected, although predicting a midweek holiday like this is tricky, as they so rarely happen. The film is still ahead of pace, even though moving in the wrong direction. It should perform better tonight and continue its strong run. Expectations for the weekend range from the low $60 million range to the mid $70 million range. The reviews are good enough that I think close to $70 million is a solid goal for its opening weekend, which would lift its running tally to about $150 million.

Ted is the first R-rated comedy to really connect with moviegoers this summer. When they do connect, films like this tend to have better than average legs. The reviews should also help in that regard. Look for just over $30 million over the weekend for a total of $120 million after two.

Brave should be next with $19 million. It will get to $200 million domestically, but that's still below expectations. On the other hand, it will be enough to show a profit, perhaps before it reaches the home market, depending on how well it does internationally.

Magic Mike has overwhelmingly positive reviews, but it hasn't been showing strong legs. It will likely fall more than 50% to $18 million, but with $78 million after ten days of release, it is on pace to hit $100 million in total and will be profitable before long.

The race for fifth place is complicated. Katy Perry: Part of Me, Savages, and Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection all have a shot at fifth place, but they all have a shot at not even coming close. Expectations for Katy Perry: Part of Me range from $7 million to $21 million. That's a big margin of error. It is earning the best reviews of the three wide releases this week, but the combination of concert and documentary might be a tough sell for those who want just the music. Also, there are very few similar films to compare to, so there's a lot of uncertainty. Finally, the film opens tonight, so some of the demand will be gone before the weekend starts. I still think it will be a surprise hit with just under $16 million over the weekend and $22 million in total. That's a great start for a film that cost just $2 million to make.

Since the beginning of the month, Savages' reviews went from amazing to merely good. I think its chances of being a sleeper hit went with them. There are some who think this film will have the worst opening for an Oliver Stone film since 1997, earning less than W. did in 2008. There are also some who think this will be is best opening ever topping Wall Street 2. I think the lower end is more likely and an opening weekend haul of about $12 million is playing it safe.

This leaves Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection in seventh place with $11 million.


Filed under: Weekend Preview, Brave, The Amazing Spider-Man, Ted, Savages, Magic Mike, Katy Perry: Part of Me, Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection