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November's Mega Start Just Misses Record

November 8th, 2010

While practically every film in the top five missed expectations, none of them were complete misses and all made enough that they could be considered victories. The overall box office was an incredibly healthy $151 million, which was 59% higher than last weekend and 26% higher than the same weekend last year. In fact, it came within $2 million of the record for the opening weekend of November. 2010 was able to put more distance between it and 2009 and it now leads the year-to-date race $8.97 billion to $8.66 billion. It would take a fairly major collapse for 2010 to not break the record for highest box office, although it will likely fail to top last year in terms of ticket sales.

MegaMind's reviews improved since Thursday hitting 68% positive, which is very solid for a kids movie. This bodes well for its future, which got off to a rosy start with a first place, $46.02 million opening. That opening is similar to Bee Movie. MegaMind did get off to a faster start, but their internal multipliers were very close at 3.67 for MegaMind and 3.73 for Bee Movie. On the other hand, the earlier film's reviews were not as good, but it also didn't have as strong direct competition as this film will have to deal with. All of these factors will likely balance out, which means MegaMind is looking at a $150 million final tally, maybe a bit more, maybe a bit less.

Due Date's chances to hit $100 million sunk over the weekend with an opening of $32.69 million. That's hardly a bad debut, but it will need better than average legs to reach the century mark, which is something its reviews will make very difficult. At the beginning of the month, its early reviews were very positive, but at the moment its Tomatometer score is just 39% positive, which is low enough to suggest its legs will be hurt by the poor word-of-mouth. I don't expect it to crash next weekend, but nor do I expect it to have a 27% drop-off like The Hangover did. A 50% drop-off is a lot more likely.

For Colored Girls just missed the $20 million mark with an opening of $19.50 million. On the one hand, this is a little lower than expected and Tyler Perry's third weakest opening of his career. On the other hand, the film cost roughly $25 million to make, so it should still show a profit sooner rather than later.

Amazingly, Red remained in the top five for yet another weekend down a mere 19% to $8.65 million after the weekend for a total of $71.66 million after four. There is a slim chance it will reach $100 million domestically, although its per theater average is getting quite low and it could start shedding theaters at an accelerated pace.

Saw VII 3D fell from first to fifth with just $7.73 million over the weekend and $38.33 million after two. It could fall out of the top ten next weekend, which would tie a record for fastest decent out of the top ten for a film that opened in first place. On the other hand, it has already made enough to cover its reported production budget, while it will likely show a profit early in its home market run, if not sooner.


Filed under: Weekend Box Office, Due Date, Saw 3D, For Colored Girls, Red, Megamind