Weekend Predictions: Will We Have a Perfect Opening, or Will the Box Office Be Mad?
May 14, 2015
Mad Max: Fury Road and Pitch Perfect 2 both open wide this week. It is normally not a good idea to have two films competing for limited box office dollars, but these two films have divergent enough target audiences that it is unlikely that they will cannibalize each other too much. The Avengers: Age of Ultron will also still do well this weekend and help the overall box office do well. This weekend last year, Godzilla led the way with $93 million during its opening weekend. Neither Mad Max: Fury Road nor Pitch Perfect 2 will earn that much this weekend; however, they should earn more than that combined. Additionally, Age of Ultron should earn more than last year's second place film, Neighbors, and this depth could give 2015 the win in the year-over-year comparison.
I thought Pitch Perfect 2 would be a bigger hit than most people were giving it credit and I predicted it would have a serious shot at $100 million. On the other hand, I didn't think it had a serious shot at opening in first place. That was before I saw its international debut. It opened with more than $7 million in Australia, a country that is about 10% the size of the domestic market. I don't think Pitch Perfect 2 will open with more than $70 million, but it could come close. It definitely has the advantage over Mad Max: Fury Road for first place over the weekend. The reviews are good, but they are a little below the first film's reviews. On the other hand, the buzz is really loud this time around. On the high end, the film could earn more during its opening weekend than its predecessor earned in total, which is just over $65 million. Anything less than $50 million will be a surprise at this point. I'm going with $58 million, which is more than most analysts, so keep that in mind.
Mad Max: Fury Road is earning some of the reviews of the year. However, the franchise was never a monster hit. The first three installments earned just under $70 million combined. Additionally, the most recent installment came out 30 years ago. Do enough people remember the original films enough to want to see the reboot? We will soon find out. It appears to be on track for $40 million to $50 million. Splitting the difference gets us a prediction of $45 million and a solid second place.
On a side note, have you heard of the man trying to start a boycott of Mad Max: Fury Road? According to this man, whom I will not link to because he doesn't deserves the clicks, the film is a piece of American Culture that has been stolen by feminists, because Charlize Theron is shown as a strong woman. I don't even know where to begin with this. Firstly, the franchise is Australian, not American. Secondly, this film was co-written and directed by George Miller, who wrote and directed every movie in the franchise, so nobody stole the film from anyone. Finally... Tina Turner. Its like he's never seen the films before.
The Avengers: Age of Ultron will lose control of the box office this weekend with roughly $34 million. However, while the film will give up top spot on the weekend chart, it will take over top spot on the yearly chart surpassing both Furious 7 and American Sniper.
There will be a huge drop from third to fourth with Hot Pursuit earning about $7 million. Its reviews and the competition will take its toll this weekend. It could have been worse, I guess.
The Age of Adaline should round out the top five with $3 million. This will be the fourth week in the top five for the film, which is excellent.
Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Age of Adaline, Mad Max: Fury Road, Avengers: Age of Ultron, Furious 7, Pitch Perfect 2, Hot Pursuit, Mad Max, Charlize Theron, George Miller, Tina Turner