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Weekend Estimates: Spectre Set to Be Number Two Bond

November 15th, 2015


Sony are predicting a decline of just 50% for Spectre in its second weekend in theaters, putting James Bond’s latest incarnation on track for a final domestic box office in the neighborhood of $200 million. While well short of Skyfall’s $304 million, it welcome news for a film that’s probably right on the bubble as far as profitability is concerned.

Also helpful on that front is the $48 million Spectre is set to make in China this weekend, which is one of the best weekends ever in the country. The films’ international total is now around $419 million, for a global haul to date of $550 million. That gives it a shot at hitting $1 billion by the end of its run, although that will depend on how well it plays into the holidays, and its final number will be influenced by the terror attacks in France, where it opened this weekend. With Paris cinemas closed for the time being, and the nation and the rest of Europe in shock and mourning, box office takes are likely to be lower than expected this weekend.

Back in the US, Love the Coopers had the cheeriest opening, with CBS Films, who are distributing the film in collaboration with Lionsgate, reporting a projected $8.4 million for the weekend. The deeply traditional holiday comedy is playing old (82% over 25) and female (70% of the audience), which bodes well for a steady run through Thanksgiving and beyond.

The 33 will land in fifth place this weekend with a projected $5.845 million and a theater average of $2,400 or so. That’s disappointing, and the film probably doesn’t have the kind of theater average that will keep it in theaters for long.

By contrast, Prem Ratan Dhan Payo has made an excellent debut, with Fox International projecting a total of $2.4 million from 286 theaters and eighth place in the chart. Bollywood films have traditionally had limited cross-over appeal and short legs, so the film probably won’t be around for long. But this is an impressive performance however you look at it.

Much less impressive is the $1.392 million projected opening for My All-American, a faith-based inspirational sports movie that has failed to connect with audiences. It will disappear from the scene rapidly, largely thanks to its $889 theater average.

In limited release, Spotlight will bring in $1.4 million from just 60 theaters this weekend for an average of $23,307. It should break in to the top 10 next weekend, and is building the kind of box office record that suggests it has a shot at some serious Awards Season attention. Several films have failed to make the transition from limited to wider release this season already, so the biggest challenge for the film lies in the next few weeks. Likewise Brooklyn, which clocks in this weekend with $485,000 from 23 theaters. It will be following a very similar path to Spotlight, and might make the transition a little more easily, given its subject matter. So far, it’s just very slightly behind on a direct comparison.

Far behind both of them is By the Sea, which opens with a disappointing projected $95,444 from 10 theaters. That’s not a complete disaster—its theater average is close to $10,000 after all—but it doesn’t suggest much of an expansion is on the cards, and poor reviews indicate limited legs for the film, even with the likes of Angelina Jolie-Pitt and Brad Pitt in the leading roles.

- Weekend estimates
- Spectre comps
- James Bond franchise history
- Peanuts comps
- Love the Coopers comps
- The 33 comps
- Prem Ratan Dhan Payo comps
- My All-American comps - The Martian comps

Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Weekend Box Office, My All-American, Spectre, Spotlight, By the Sea, Brooklyn, Love the Coopers, The 33, Prem Ratan Dhan Payo, James Bond, Angelina Jolie Pitt, Brad Pitt