Weekend Predictions: Krampus Has a Surprise For You
December 3, 2015
The weekend after Thanksgiving is historically a really bad time of the year at the box office. This year there is only one wide release risking it, Krampus. However, this is one more wide release than we had this week last year. There is also a semi-wide release coming out, The Letter, but its reviews are terrible and its box office chances might be even worse. This should give The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 an easy path to first place. In fact, the top three will likely remain the same as last weekend. Fortunately, the holdovers this year are stronger than the holdovers last year, so 2015 should win in the year-over-year comparison.
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 2 should complete the hat trick earning first place with $21 million over the weekend. This would push its running tally to close to $230 million. It will likely still be in the top ten through till the new year and that should help it cross $300 million. If it does so, then all four films in the Hunger Games franchise will have reached that milestone. Even if it doesn't, the four films will earn early $1.5 billion domestically and $3.0 billion worldwide. There are not many franchises that can claim those numbers.
The Good Dinosaur and Creed will be in a very close race for second place. The Good Dinosaur should grab second place with just over $17 million. It is going to have no trouble getting to $100 million domestically, maybe even $150 million. (It depends on if it is still playing truly wide on Christmas.) This is enough to be considered a hit, but not a Pixar-level hit.
Creed will be right behind with just under $16 million. It too is heading for $100 million domestically, which is much better than most people were expecting. It is too soon to tell how well it will do internationally, but it will very likely break even before it reaches the home market.
Krampus is a Christmas movie about a boy who accidentally summons a Christmas demon, Krampus, which then terrorizes his family. There was one review on Rotten Tomatoes, and it was positive, but it has since disappeared. I'm not sure what to make of that, because I didn't get a chance to read the review before it was taken down. Anything more than $10 million will be considered a success, given the film's release date and its likely low production budget. I'm going to be a little more generous than that and predict an opening of $12 million. If is it still in wide release by Christmas, it should be considered a success.
Spectre should round out the top five with $6 million for a total of close to $185 million. Without looking at the upcoming releases / holiday, this would be enough to get to $200 million. Looking ahead, The Force Awakens likely won't do more damage than Christmas can mitigate.
The Letter is opening in roughly 1,000 theaters, so it only needs a per theater average of just over $2,000 to reach the top ten. Sadly, most expect it will not get there. The early reviews are terrible and the buzz is really quiet. It could open with a per theater average of less than $1,000. I'm not that pessimistic, but $2 million is as high as I will go.
Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Good Dinosaur, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2, Spectre, The Letters, Krampus, Creed, Hunger Games