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Weekend Predictions: Deadpool Looks to Outrace the New Releases

February 19th, 2016


The box office doesn't look good this week, not when compared to last weekend. Last weekend Deadpool broke many records, from biggest February weekend, to more obscure records like biggest R-rated super hero movie. Worse still, there are three wide releases this weekend, but combined they still won't match Deadpool's sophomore stint. They won't even come close. Race and Risen should be in a close race for third place, while The Witch will likely just finish in the top five. This weekend last year, Fifty Shades of Grey remained in first place, despite dropping 74% to $22.26 million. Deadpool should crush that number. However, last year, there were also 6 movies that earned $10 million or more. This year, there might be only be two $10 million movies.

Deadpool became the biggest R-rated Super Hero Comic Book movie ever topping Watchmen's final box office of $107.51 million domestically in just three days. It could become the biggest R-rated Comic Book movie ever over the weekend; the current record holder is 300 at $210.59 million, while Deadpool currently has $172.37 million. It is a post-holiday and the Fanboy Effect will be strong, despite the amazing reviews. A 60% drop-off is possible, which would leave the film with $53 million over the weekend. Even the high end has the film falling 50% to $66 million over the weekend. Just over $60 million is more likely, but that would still put the film's running tally to $240 million. That will put it in sixth place on the all-time record for an R-rated film, while it should climb as high as third place on that chart. (American Sniper and The Passion of the Christ are very likely out of reach).

The only other film likely to top $10 million is Kung Fu Panda 3. The film cracked $100 million on Monday and by Wednesday it had hit $103 million. Look for $12 million over the weekend for a total of $116 million after 17 days of release.

The best of the new releases should be Risen, but there's a lot of uncertainty there. The film is a faith-based film that uses the Biblical story of the Easter miracle to tell a sort of a mystery story. Joseph Fiennes plays a Centurion who has to find Jesus's missing body. It's an interesting setup, while the reviews are overall positive. On the high end, the film could earn as much as $15 million. On the low end, it could make less than half of that. Just under $10 million is more likely.

Race is an inspirational sports movie based on real life events. This time it is based on the life of Jesse Owens, who was an African-American track star who raced during the 1936 Olympics, which was held in Nazi Germany. The reviews are just okay. Most critics are not saying the movie is bad per say, but that it feels more like a TV movie than it does a cinematic experience. It still has a shot at third place with just over $10 million, but fourth place and $9 million is more likely.

The Witch cost just $1 million to make and it will make more than that during its opening day. The reviews are 88% positive. However, it wasn't that long ago that the film was going to open in limited release and its theater count is expected to be just under 2,000. It should still earn a spot in the top five with about $7 million, but it will have to wait till the home market to cover its advertising budget.

- Risen comparisons
- Race comparisons
- The Witch comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Deadpool, Kung Fu Panda 3, Risen, Race, The Witch, Joseph Fiennes