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Friday Estimates: Deadpool Rises to the Occasion

February 20th, 2016


Deadpool landed on the low end of expectations on Friday with $16.23 million. This puts it on pace to reach $56 million over the weekend, which is way more than the three new wide releases will earn. It also keeps the film on pace for more than $300 million domestically. Had it cost the usual $150 million to $200 million for a comic book movie, it still would have broken even.

Risen got off to the fastest start earning $4.0 million. Mixed reviews won’t help its internal multiplier, but its more mature target demographic will. If it does well with churchgoers, then it could hit $12 million over the weekend. That’s probably too optimistic but over $11 million isn’t.

The Witch was next with $3.2 million on Friday. It is earning incredible reviews, but it is a horror film and historically those have short legs. It should still earn more than anticipated, with just over $8 million. The film’s theater count rose to 2,046, making it the first film release by A24 to open truly wide. If it does earn $8 million, it will be in the top five for the distributor after just three days of release.

The final new wide release of the week was Race, which bombed with just $2.34 million during its opening day. Its reviews did climb back over the overall positive threshold, but it will still finish with only $7 million this weekend. Unless it cost a lot less to make than expected, it won’t break even any time soon.

- Friday Box Office

- Risen comparisons
- Race comparisons
- The Witch comparisons

Filed under: Friday Estimates