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Weekend Estimates: Matt Damon Shows Star Power Can Matter

July 31st, 2016

Jason Bourne

When it comes to “star power” in Hollywood, I’ve been a skeptic ever since we launched our Bankability Index, and started looking at the real influence a single actor has on the performance of a film. With some notable exceptions (Tom Cruise and Sandra Bullock chief among them these days), actors generally don’t move the box office dial much when they appear in a generic film. But this weekend’s opening of Jason Bourne shows what the combination of the right actor in the right role can do. In spite of virtually identical reviews to 2012’s The Bourne Legacy, the new film, a franchise un-re-boot if you will, starring Matt Damon in the role he made iconic, will post a very solid $60 million this weekend. To be fair, that’s a bit behind the inflation-adjusted openings of The Bourne Ultimatum and The Bourne Supremacy, but it’s far better than the $38 million earned by Legacy when it debuted.

Whether the Jason Bourne can generate enough money globally to justify another sequel remains to be seen. A domestic haul around $200 million seems like a good bet, and something around $400 million worldwide would make this another profitable outing. But the fact that the previous film made $120 million less globally puts Damon in a very strong negotiating position… if he’s worth $50 million to a Bourne film, say, but Bourne films only make $30 million in profit, finding a compromise might be hard.

Calculations are much easier for this weekend’s other new wide release. Bad Moms is an out-and-out hit for fledgling distributor STX Entertainment. The comedy will earn $23.4 million this weekend from 3,215 locations, and should ride good word of mouth to a healthy second-half-of-Summer total.

Also in wide release after a Wednesday opening, Nerve will pick up a decent $9 million this weekend for a total of $15 million to date. Its reviews from critics are somewhat weak, but it seems to be getting good word of mouth, and should play well on VoD once it’s out of theaters. With a $20 million budget, it’s not a surefire profit maker at this point, but it should at least come close.

In limited release, a bevy of films will top $10,000 averages. Top of the list this week is Equity, a well-reviewed drama from Sony Classics. It will pick up about $80,000 from four theaters. Gleason is set for an almost-as-impressive $129,223 from nine locations, for an average of $14,358. Finally, Hieronymus Bosch, Touched by the Devil and Miss Sharon Jones will both earn $12,000 or so from a single theater.

- Weekend estimates

- Jason Bourne comparison chart
- Bourne franchise history
- Bad Moms comparison chart
- Nerve comparison chart
- Star Trek Beyond comparison chart
- Star Trek franchise history
- Ghostbusters comparison chart
- The Secret Life of Pets comparison chart
- Finding Dory comparison chart
- Highest-grossing animated movies
- Top 2016 movies at the global box office

Bruce Nash,

Filed under: Weekend Box Office, Jason Bourne, Bad Moms, Miss Sharon Jones, Nerve, Equity, Gleason, Jheronimus Bosch, Touched by the Devil, Star Trek, Bourne, Sandra Bullock, Tom Cruise, Matt Damon