Weekend Estimates: Madea Defeats Feeble Inferno
October 30, 2016
What was meant to be the weekend that the Fall Season started in earnest has turned into a damp squib, with Inferno not just failing to hit expectations, but not even topping the chart. With just $15 million expected this weekend, according to Sony’s Sunday morning projection, the franchise has shown a dismal downward trajectory at the domestic box office. The Da Vinci Code opened with $77 million in 2006; Angels & Demons debuted with $46 million in 2009; and now Inferno will earn less on its opening weekend than either of its predecessors made on their opening days.
The weak opening for Inferno follows a string of so-so results for films over the past couple of months. Perhaps the reality show that is our presidential election is dragging down theatrical business?
We’ll have more evidence for that next weekend with the release of Doctor Strange. The hype for that film is huge, and it has to have a shot at a $100 million opening. This weekend saw it pile up $86 million internationally in 33 territories, which Disney pegs at +49% ahead of Ant-Man, +37% ahead of Guardians of the Galaxy, and +23% compared to Captain America: The Winter Soldier, looking at the same territories and adjusting for exchange rate changes. Guardians of the Galaxy opened with $94 million, and Ant-Man with $57 million, so the safest bet for Doctor Strange is somewhere around $75 million. We’ll have much more to say about that over the next week, but for now it’s fair to say that Disney will be eyeing political events closely this week, and the industry as a whole will be praying that the election on November 8 has a clear-cut outcome either way.
The weak start for Inferno this weekend left an opening for Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween to stay at the top of the chart, and it will do so fairly comfortably. The seasonally-relevant comedy will be down just 41% from last weekend for about $16.7 million and $52 million to date. That’s already on par with Madea’s last three outings and sets it on course to be the second-highest-grossing film in the franchise after Madea Goes to Jail’s $90.5 million.
In limited release this weekend, Ae Dil Hai Mushkil will probably make it into the top 10 (it’s just about tied with Deepwater Horizon for that spot), with $2.135 million projected from 302 theaters. Today’s Diwali celebration has helped boost the film.
Moonlight is continuing its very promising run with $900,000 expected from 36 theaters this weekend for an average of $25,000. The film has already picked up nearly $1.5 million after two weekends.
- Inferno comparison chart
Bruce Nash, bruce.nash@the-numbers.com
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Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Inferno, Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange, Moonlight, Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween, Ae Dil Hai Mushkil