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Weekend Wrap-Up: Moana Completes Threepeat with $18.53 million

December 13th, 2016


As predicted, Moana was able to grab first place on the weekend box office chart. On the downside, it slipped a little faster than expected. Additionally, Office Christmas Party missed expectations and this led to the overall box office falling 13% from last weekend to $83 million. That said, this is still 7.0% higher than the same weekend last year and that’s more important. Year-to-date, 2016 maintained its $460 million / 4.7% lead over 2015 at $10.23 billion to $9.77 billion. This lead will take a serious hit this coming weekend when Rogue One goes against The Force Awakens. That said, unless Rogue One opens with less than $100 million during its weekend, 2016 should still come out ahead at the end of the year.

Moana remained in top spot down 34% to $18.53 million over the weekend for a total of $144.70 million. This is identical to Tangled’s decline at the same point and it managed another $85 million during its run. If Moana managed to keep on the same trajectory throughout the rest of its run, it would finish with $254 million domestically. On the positive side, Moana’s higher theater average should help it hold onto theaters better and its recent Golden Globe Nominations could boost its box office results. However, like I’ve been saying for a couple of weeks now, it has massive competition opening this week and direct competition opening next week. If Moana holds its own against Rogue One, then I will be a lot more bullish.

Office Christmas Party opened with $16.89 million over the weekend, which is close to our predictions. Its 43% positive reviews and its B CinemaScore will neither hurt nor help its legs. Given the time of year, one could safely assume strong legs, but this film shares a lot of its target audience with Rogue One and that could really hurt its box office this coming weekend.

Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them added $10.42 million to its running tally, which now sits at $198.95 million. Its theater average is low enough that it will lose a lot of its theaters to Rogue One, but it will top $200 million before then, which is enough to be considered a massive hit.

Arrival slipped a spot to fourth with $5.59 million over the weekend for a total of $81.44 million after a month of release. Like every film currently in theaters, it will be hurt by the release of Rogue One on Friday; however, it earned a couple of Golden Globe Nominations, so that should mitigate some of the decline. It might help enough to get to $100 million domestically.

Doctor Strange remained in fifth place with $4.54 million over the weekend for a total of $222.27 million after six weeks of release. The film is going to lose a lot of its theaters on Friday, but it has already made an absolute mountain of money at the worldwide box office and is the second best introductory movie in the M.C.U.. Even if its theater count drops to below 1,000 on Friday, Disney will still be happy.

Nocturnal Animals performed better than expected with $3.16 million over the weekend for a total of $6.19 million, including its limited release run. Its theater average is just a hair over $2,500, which isn’t enough to warrant further expansion, but I also doubt many theater owners will be looking to drop it right away either. Furthermore, the film just picked up three Golden Globe Nominations, so it should get at least a little boost from that.

Manchester by the Sea was right behind with $3.13 million, but it was only playing in 368 theaters, so this is a fantastic result. It is scheduled to “expand wide” this Friday, but as we saw this past weekend, “expand wide” is very vague and could mean anything from just over 1,000 theaters to closer to 3,000 theaters.

On the other hand, Miss Sloane won’t stick around for long. It only managed $1.84 million in 1,648 theaters over the weekend for a running tally of $1.98 million. Even with Christmas just under two weeks away, it might not stick around in theaters long enough to get to $5 million.

The only film in the sophomore class was Incarnate, which fell to 14th place with $1.08 million over the weekend for a total of $4.22 million after two weeks of release. We’ve seen worse this year, but that’s hardly a compliment.

- Weekend Box Office Chart

- Office Christmas Party Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Wrap-up, Moana, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, Doctor Strange, Manchester by the Sea, Nocturnal Animals, Arrival, Incarnate, Miss Sloane, Office Christmas Party, Marvel Cinematic Universe