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Weekend Predictions: Will The Last Knight Transformer Paramount’s Predicament?

June 21st, 2017

Transformers: The Last Knight

We have early predictions this week, as Transformers: The Last Knight is out in theaters on Wednesday. (We will get to the holdovers at the regular time.) The Last Knight has to be a monster hit, because the studio, Paramount, is in a slump the likes of which you rarely see. The last time they had a $200 million hit domestically was the last Transformer movie to hit theaters. The last time they had more than a 10% share of the box office was the last time they had the distribution rights to some of the MCU movies. Speaking of combined universes, The Last Knight is supposed to be the creation of a new Hasbro Combined Universe with this franchise and G.I. Joe being the heart of the new universe. This could fail for the same reasons The Mummy failed to jump start the Dark Universe franchise. Namely, the reviews are terrible and audiences are tired of combined universes being forced instead of growing organically.

Transformers: The Last Knight cost well over $200 million to make and one has to assume around $100 million to advertise. At the beginning of the month, I figured the film would make $100 million during its five-day opening, but that’s no longer the case. Not only are the reviews worse than I expected at just 17% positive. This is barely better than The Mummy earned. Also, The Last Knight’s average score is just 3.3/10 vs. 4.2/10 for The Mummy. Furthermore, the buzz simply isn’t there. In fact, Spider-Man: Homecoming in generating more than twice the buzz, despite not opening for another two full weeks. I think domestic audiences have just grown bored of the franchise.

I’m going with a five-day opening of just over $70 million, which is about what the first film made during its opening three-day weekend. It can still make money, if it maintains its international box office prowess.

- Transformers: The Last Knight Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Mummy, Transformers: The Last Knight, Transformers, G.I. Joe, Marvel Cinematic Universe, Dark Universe