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Weekend Predictions: Coco Will Repeat on Top, but Can it Catch Up with Moana?

November 30th, 2017


There are no wide releases this weekend, which means Coco should have no trouble remaining on top of the chart. In fact, most of the top five will remain the same as last weekend. Maybe one of the Awards Season contenders will expand enough to grab a spot in the top five, but that isn’t really likely. This weekend last year, Moana remained in first place, as there were also no new releases to compete against. 2017 should be able to win in the year-over-year comparison, but it will be awfully close.

Coco’s legs are a little better than Moana’s were at this point in its run. Assuming this trend continues this weekend, the film will earn $26 million during its sophomore stint, helping it rocket past $100 million domestically. The film likely cost close to $200 million, with an advertising budget around the $100 million mark, so it will need about $650 million worldwide to break even before its home market run. That is within reach and even if it only gets close, it will be a financial success.

Justice League will very likely fall just over 60% to just under $16 million this weekend. It is on pace to reach $200 million shortly, but won’t get there this weekend. Sadly, the film cost $300 million to make and an estimated $200 million to advertise. It won’t be able to recoup that worldwide, but every dollar it makes will at least limit the losses. It would be the first movie in the DCEU to not earn a profit.

On the other extreme, Wonder may have already broken even. The film should hold onto most of its weekend figure, so look for $12 million over the weekend for a total that’s closing in on $90 million.

Thor: Ragnarok is on track to earn $8 million over the weekend, pushing its running tally to approximately $290 million. It will get to $300 million domestically, but it might not get there till after The Last Jedi cuts into its theater count.

Daddy’s Home 2 and Murder on the Orient Express will again be in a virtual tie for fifth place with around $7 million over the weekend. Murder on the Orient Express has a higher theater average, so it should hold onto more theaters giving it the slight advantage. In fact, this might help its legs enough to get to $100 million. This is assuming The Last Jedi doesn’t knock it out of truly wide release in a couple of weeks.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Coco, Justice League, Wonder, Thor: Ragnarok, Murder on the Orient Express, Daddy’s Home 2, DC Extended Universe