Weekend Estimates: Last Jedi Set for $220 Million Domestic Debut

December 17, 2017

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Star Wars: The Last Jedi will earn $220 million at the domestic box office this weekend, according to Disney’s Sunday morning estimate. After starting out with the second-biggest day of all time on Friday (a monstrous $104.787 million, including $45 million in Thursday previews), the film looks to be holding on well through the weekend. Saturday’s estimate is $64 million, off 39% from Friday, compared to The Force Awakens’ decline of 43% on its second day. Disney is projecting a decline of 20% on Sunday, while Awakens dropped 11%, which suggests caution on their part, and the possibility of a final opening weekend a little higher than their current projection.

Internationally, things are also looking predictably gigantic, with lots of second-best-all-time weekends, including in Australia ($15.9 million vs. $19.61m for Force Awakens), Germany ($23.6m vs $27.2m), and Sweden ($6.0m), in each case coming second to The Force Awakens. It will have the 3rd-best opening in the UK ($36.7m vs. $50.7m), and the best weekend of 2017 in France ($18.1m vs. $21.4m for Force Awakens). Other big territories include Japan ($14.4m vs. $10.1m), Russia ($8.5m vs. $12.5m), Spain ($8.3m vs $8.5m), Brazil ($7.2m vs. $8.2m), Italy ($7.0m), Mexico ($7.0m vs. $7.8m), and Korea ($5.1m vs. $6.7m).

On IMAX Jedi is set to earn $40.6 million worldwide from 776 locations, of which $24.6 million comes from the domestic market.

After looking like it would run about 20% behind Force Awakens, Last Jedi is now looking like it’ll be more like 10% behind domestically. Based on the international territories where we have a direct comparison, it’s running about 16% behind the previous movie in the main franchise. With the film not opening in China until January, and the potential for a better performance from that territory (Force Awakens earned a relatively modest $126 million there), a final tally in the region of $2 billion looks like a good bet, although it might not quite hit that mark unless China delivers something special.

The $450 million global opening for The Last Jedi is fifth on the all-time list. The Fate of the Furious holds that record with $531 million (fueled by a gigantic performance in China), followed by The Force Awakens’ $529 million, and Jurassic World’s $526 million. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part II is in fourth place with $483 million, although it has the best global weekend when adjusted for inflation, with around $574 million in 2017 dollars. Star Wars is therefore the only franchise to have two entries in the top five.

Disney has another reason to celebrate this weekend, as it will have, at least technically, the top three spots at the domestic box office. Its new subsidiary, 20th Century Fox, will take second place for the weekend with an estimated $13.325 million for Ferdinand—fairly modest numbers really, but the film will play well through the holidays. Coco is in third with $10.02 million in its third weekend.

In limited release, I, Tonya continues a great run with $176,189 projected from five theaters, for an average over $35,000. The Shape of Water is in the $10,000-average-club with $1.738 million from 158 theaters, and it’s joined there by Darkest Hour, with $852,000 from 84 locations.

- Weekend estimates
- Biggest weekends at the box office
- Star Wars franchise history

- Star Wars: The Last Jedi Comparisons
- Ferdinand Comparisons
- Coco Comparisons
- Wonder Comparisons
- Justice League Comparisons
- Daddy’s Home 2 Comparisons
- Thor: Ragnarok Comparisons
- Murder on the Orient Express Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Coco, Ferdinand, Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Last Jedi, Darkest Hour, I, Tonya, The Shape of Water, Star Wars