Weekend Predictions: New Releases are Far From Perfect
December 21, 2017
This is technically Christmas Weekend, so it should come as no surprised that there are a lot of movies vying for that lucrative Christmas family audience. Two of them, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Greatest Showman, opened yesterday, and we’ve already talked about how well they did on their opening day. On Friday, they will be joined by Pitch Perfect 3, Downsizing, and Father Figures, none of which are earning good reviews and only one of which is expected to be a box office hit. This should leave Star Wars: The Last Jedi on top of the chart with room to spare. This weekend last year, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story dominated the box office, while Sing was the only release that was a major hit.
Star Wars: The Last Jedi has been on top of the box office all week and it isn’t going anywhere this weekend. In fact, it should bounce back better than the previous two films in the Star Wars franchise, because a lot more schools were closed during the week they came out, compared to The Last Jedi. On the downside, Christmas Eve is on Sunday and Christmas Eve is one of the worst dead zones at the box office during the entire year. Last Jedi won’t fall as fast as Rogue One did, as Christmas Eve was on a Saturday last year. It will fall faster than The Force Awakens, because Christmas Eve didn’t land on the weekend in 2015. Anything less than $100 million over the weekend will be disappointing, while anything more than $110 million will be a good omen going forward. I’m going with $108 million over the weekend and just over $400 million after two weeks of release.
I thought Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle would easily earn second place over the weekend, but its Wednesday debut was softer than I thought it would be. I still think it will earn more than $30 million over the weekend and clear $100 million domestically with ease, especially since its reviews are the best among the new releases, and it earned an A minus from CinemaScore. However, I was originally expecting it to earn over $40 million over the weekend and I really don’t think it is going to get there. Let’s go with $33 million.
Pitch Perfect 3 won’t be far behind. On the one hand, it is the third and final installment in the popular franchise and that is giving it much louder buzz. On the other hand, its reviews are terrible, especially compared to the first films’s reviews. I don’t think this outing will open with half as much as the $69 million enjoying by Pitch Perfect 2, but it will be close, with $32 million.
Given the star power Downsizing has on both sides of the camera and its release date, one could assume it was made to win awards. However, its reviews are nowhere near award-worthy; in fact, they are below the overall positive level. Furthermore, there are three films above it in terms of buzz, so it could be lost in the crowd. I don’t think it will bomb, but an opening weekend of just over $11 million is as high as I’m willing to go.
The Greatest Showman only managed $2.5 million on Wednesday, which was not a good opening. On the positive side, while its reviews are mixed, it earned an A from CinemaScore. Hopefully it will bounce back with just under $11 million, which should be enough for fifth place. If not, Ferdinand will be there to grab it.
The final wide release of the week is Father Figures, a film that still had no reviews when I started writing the prediction. Now there are two of them and not only are they both negative, they are aggressively negative. Add in the competition and the movie has practically no chance at reaching the top five. Look for $6 million during its opening weekend.
- Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Comparisons
- Pitch Perfect 3 Comparisons
- Downsizing Comparisons
- The Greatest Showman Comparisons
- Father Figures Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Greatest Showman, Downsizing, Ferdinand, Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Last Jedi, Pitch Perfect 3, Father Figures, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Star Wars, Pitch Perfect