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Weekend Predictions: Will the Final Grey Film Open in the Black?

February 8th, 2018

Fifty Shades Freed

As the weekend approaches, there’s only one film that everyone is talking about: Black Panther. The film’s reviews are nearly 100% positive and Fandango announced its presales are the best for any pre-summer release. Unfortunately, it doesn’t open until next weekend. This week we have to settle for Fifty Shades Freed, Peter Rabbit, and The 15:17 to Paris. Fifty Shades Freed is widely expected to be the biggest hit released in 2018, at least so far. On the other hand, its reviews and the Fangirl Effect strongly suggest very short legs. Peter Rabbit is a family film and even though it has direct competition next weekend, it should have the best legs on this week’s list. Finally there’s The 15:17 to Paris, which is not living up to expectations with critics and this will likely hurt its box office chances. This weekend last year was Presidents Day long Weekend. 2018 is going to get absolutely destroyed in the year-over-year comparison.

Fifty Shades Freed is the last film in the franchise. The first two films earned nearly $1 billion combined at the worldwide box office. However, there was a sizable drop at the box office between the first and the second film. Likewise, there was a sizable drop when it comes to critical reception. This film started off earning the worst reviews, but it has rebounded somewhat. The reviews are still terrible, the worst of the weekend, but a little better than what Fifty Shades Darker earned. As for its box office chances, most think it will earn $40 million over the weekend, give or take $5 million. Earlier, I thought it would be on the high end of that range, but now I think $38 million is more likely. This is still a good result and thanks to Valentine’s Day and next week’s holiday, it will likely have better legs and break even before it reaches the home market.

Peter Rabbit is a live action / digitally animated film loosely based on the Peter Rabbit books by Beatrix Potter. The reviews are good, but not great, while the buzz is quieter than I would like. It is a family film, so the quiet buzz isn’t a dealbreaker and 69% positive reviews is definitely good enough. Look for $24 million over the weekend and boosts from Valentine’s Day and next week’s holiday.

The 15:17 to Paris is the latest film from Clint Eastwood. He’s made some great movies, but this is not one of them. In fact, this is arguably the worst movie he’s been involved with for nearly 30 years. Films like this one have had some recent box office success; however, this is the third biggest film of the weekend and while it shares nearly none of its target audience with the other two films, it will still struggle with the competition. Look for $15 million over the weekend, which still isn’t bad for a film that cost just $30 million to make.

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle is finally giving up its hold on the box office and will fall to fourth place this weekend. That said, it should still add another $8 million to its running tally.

The Greatest Showman should be right behind with $7 million. It too will see its incredible box office run start to come to a close.

- Fifty Shades Freed Comparisons
- Peter Rabbit Comparisons
- The 15:17 to Paris Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Greatest Showman, Fifty Shades Freed, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Peter Rabbit, The 15:17 to Paris, Fifty Shades of Grey, Clint Eastwood, Beatrix Potter
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