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Weekend Wrap-Up: Freed Falls to $38.56 million

February 13th, 2018

Fifty Shades Freed

Fifty Shades Freed topped our prediction by a tiny margin earning first place over the weekend with $38.56 million. Peter Rabbit also beat expectations with $25.01 million. Then there’s The 15:17 to Paris. Overall, the box office rocketed up 49% from last weekend to $140 million. Unfortunately, this wasn’t enough to compete with this weekend last year, as 2018 was 26% lower. That sounds devastating, but remember, there is a misalignment in holidays, so next weekend 2018 will bounce back. Likewise, because of the misalignment in holidays, the year-to-date comparison isn’t particularly useful. 2018 is behind 2017’s pace by 5.0% or $65 million at $1.22 billion to $1.28 billion. However, by this time next week, that entire deficit could be erased.

Fifty Shades Freed debuted in first place with $38.56 million during its opening weekend. This is 17% lower than Fifty Shades Darker earned, worse still, Freed has a smaller internal multiplier. Granted, Darker opened during Presidents Day long weekend, so it had an advantage in that regard. If the two films have the same legs, and their similar reviews and B pluses from CinemaScore would indicate that’s likely, then Freed will earn about $95 million domestically. However, since next weekend is Presidents Day long weekend, Freed is on pace to hit $100 million domestically. It might take a little push by Universal in the end, but I think it will get there.

Peter Rabbit opened with $25.01 million, which is a little higher than we predicted. Unfortunately, its reviews have fallen below the overall positive level, while it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, which is merely average for a family film. That said, it only cost $50 million to make, so assuming it can find an audience internationally, it will break even by its initial run on the home market.

The 15:17 to Paris struggled with just $12.55 million. The reviews are terrible and the film only managed a B minus from CinemaScore, so it will likely have short legs. That said, it only cost $30 million to make, so it could still break even, eventually.

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle fell just 8% to $10.02 million over the weekend for a total of $365.86 million after nearly two months of release. It should remain in the top five next weekend, while $400 million domestically isn’t out of the question.

The Greatest Showman rounded out the top five with $6.44 million for a running tally of $146.58 million after eight weeks of release.

Winchester fell from third to seventh during its sophomore stint, earning $5.21 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $17.34 million. Its weekend haul declined 44%, which isn’t a bad drop-off for a horror film. Furthermore, it didn’t cost a lot to make, so it could break even early in its home market run.

- Weekend Box Office Chart

- Fifty Shades Freed Comparisons
- Peter Rabbit Comparisons
- The 15:17 to Paris Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Wrap-up, The Greatest Showman, Fifty Shades Freed, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, Peter Rabbit, Winchester, The 15:17 to Paris, Fifty Shades of Grey
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