Friday Estimates: Black Panther Crushes Expectations, Headed over $200 million for Weekend
February 17, 2018
As expected, Black Panther crushed the competition on Friday. However, it beat all but the most enthusiastic predictions to earn $75.81 million for the day. Add in 97% positive reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and an A+ from CinemaScore, and the film should have good legs over the weekend. On the negative side, it is a monster hit thanks in part to the deafening hype, so that’s going to result in shorter legs.
Disney is now predicting $190 million to $210 million over the four-day weekend, making it the biggest 4-day Holiday Weekend of all time. Meanwhile, it will open just outside of the top five 3-day weekend of all time. Our model has it earning $177 million, which would actually place it 7th on that chart, but it could easily top Captain America: Civil War’s $179 million to finish 6th.
One record it can already lay claim to is the best theater average on opening day for non-sequel wide release. Overall, the only non-sequel film to top it on opening day is The Avengers, which posted $80.8 million on its first day back in 2012.
Fifty Shades Freed fell to second place with $5.7 million on Friday. This is 69% lower than its opening Friday, but it should bounce back over the rest of the weekend to earn $20 million four days. This is more or less what we predicted, and it is enough to keep it on pace for $100 million domestically.
Peter Rabbit landed in third place with $4.13 million; however, thanks to its family-friendly nature, it should hop into second place over the weekend with $22 million. Again, this is a little better than we predicted and it makes $100 million a little more likely. It will still need a push from Sony, but getting to that milestone might be worth the extra effort.
The next new release of the week was Early Man, but it bombed with just $850,000 on Friday. The film’s reviews were better than 80% positive, but it only managed a B from CinemaScore, which is bad for a Family film. The film will miss the top five with between $4 million and $5 million over the four-day weekend.
Samson only managed $630,000 during its opening day. Additionally, its reviews are only 20% positive, while it was too small of a release to get a CinemaScore. On the positive side, it should still grab a spot in the top ten over the weekend. On the negative side, it will miss the Mendoza Line with just over $2 million.
- Black Panther Comparisons
- Early Man Comparisons
- Samson Comparisons
Filed under: Friday Estimates, Black Panther, Fifty Shades Freed, Early Man, Peter Rabbit, Samson