2017 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Original Screenplay

February 27, 2018

Get Out

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two Screenwriting Categories, ending with with Best Original Screenplay. This category is actually competitive, which is the first time I’ve been able to say that so far this year. In fact, there are three nominees that have a reasonable shot at winning.

(Note: All previous awards listed are only for writing and not other categories. However, they are for both original, adapted, and combined writing categories, depending on the award in question. Previous awards and nominations are not for theatrical and not TV programs, on the other hand. )

Best Adapted Screenplay

Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird
Tomatometer Score: 99% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globes, BAFTA, Independent Spirit Awards, and WGA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None (One Pending)
Writer's Previous Major Nominations: None
Writer's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: This movie’s reviews are amazing and it clearly deserves awards. However, while it has earned four major award nominations, it hasn’t been able to convert any of them into wins, at least not yet. If it does win here, I will be happy, but I will also be a little surprised.

Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani for The Big Sick
Tomatometer Score: 98% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Independent Spirit Awards and WGA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None (One Pending)
Writer's Previous Major Nominations: First Screenplay
Writer's Previous Major Wins: First Screenplay
Notes: I really want this film to win this Oscar, but I know it won’t. It is the longest long shot in this category.

Martin McDonagh for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Tomatometer Score: 93% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globes, BAFTA, and Independent Spirit Awards
Movie's Previous Major Wins: Golden Globes and BAFTA (One Pending)
Writer's Previous Major Nominations: One Oscar, One BAFTA, and One Independent Spirit Awards
Writer's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: This film has won two major awards and has one pending, so you can’t dismiss its chances of winning the Oscar. That said, the two it has won are the least predictive when it comes to the Oscars. I don’t think it is quite the favorite. I do think it is practically a coin toss for the award.

Jordan Peele for Get Out
Tomatometer Score: 99% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: BAFTA, Independent Spirit Awards, and WGA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: WGA (One Pending)
Writer's Previous Major Nominations: First Screenplay
Writer's Previous Major Wins: First Screenplay
Notes: Jordan Peele became the first African-American to be nominated for Best Screenplay, Best Director, and Best Picture. He could win all three Oscars, or he could win none of them. Of the three awards, this is the one he’s most likely to win.

Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor for The Shape of Water
Tomatometer Score: 82% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globes, BAFTA, and WGA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Writer's Previous Major Nominations: One Oscars, One BAFTA, and One Independent Spirit Award
Writer's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: The Shape of Water has earned a lot of Oscar nominations in most of the prestige categories, but it is a long shot to win most of them. This includes this category.

Conclusion: I really, really want The Big Sick to win here, but it is the longest of the long shots here. In reality, it is a two-horse race between Jordan Peele for Get Out and Martin McDonagh for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, with Greta Gerwig having a not insignificant chance to win for Lady Bird. I’m giving the edge to Jordan Peele, but it is close.


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Filed under: Awards Season, Get Out, The Big Sick, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Shape of Water, Lady Bird, Guillermo del Toro, Greta Gerwig, Jordan Peele, Vanessa Taylor, Martin McDonagh, Kumail Nanjiani, Emily V. Gordon