2017 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Picture

March 1, 2018

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We end with the biggest award of the night: Best Picture. It is actually competitive this year with two films in a tight race, while there is a long shot with a shot.

Best Picture

Call Me by Your Name
Tomatometer Score: 96% Positive
Total Oscar Nominations: Four
Golden Globe Nominations: Three
Golden Globe Wins: None
BAFTA Nominations: Four
BAFTA Wins: One
Guild Nominations: Three
Guild Wins: One
Notes: Like most films on this list, this one earned a Tomatometer Score that is better than 90% positive; however, it has only been a marginal player during Awards Season and has struggled to convert many nominations into wins. I do think it will win an Oscar, but not for Best Picture.

Darkest Hour
Tomatometer Score: 86% Positive
Total Oscar Nominations: Six
Golden Globe Nominations: One
Golden Globe Wins: One
BAFTA Nominations: Nine
BAFTA Wins: Two
Guild Nominations: One
Guild Wins: One
Notes: If this film wins Best Picture, I will be annoyed. The film is a bog standard biopic with an excellent central performance, but it isn’t Best Picture material. I think it only got nominated, because it plays into the Oscar Voters’ biases. They love biopics, especially of this era.

Dunkirk
Tomatometer Score: 93% Positive
Total Oscar Nominations: Eight
Golden Globe Nominations: Three
Golden Globe Wins: None
BAFTA Nominations: Eight
BAFTA Wins: One
Guild Nominations: Three
Guild Wins: None
Notes: Another film set during World War II, which is catnip for Oscar voters. This one is better than the previous such film on this list and I widely expect it to win a few technical Oscars; however, it likely won’t win any of the prestige ones. It isn’t the longest long shot, on the other hand.

Get Out
Tomatometer Score: 99% Positive
Total Oscar Nominations: Four
Golden Globe Nominations: Two
Golden Globe Wins: None
BAFTA Nominations: Two
BAFTA Wins: None
Guild Nominations: Six
Guild Wins: Two
Notes: If you just look at this film’s reviews, you would have to think it would be a major Awards Season player. However, it’s a horror movie and that’s the wrong genre. Too many voters think horror films are not serious enough to be considered for such a prestigious award. That said, 99% positive is still enough that it has a shot at winning, a maybe 10% shot at winning.

Lady Bird
Tomatometer Score: 99% Positive
Total Oscar Nominations: Five
Golden Globe Nominations: Four
Golden Globe Wins: Two
BAFTA Nominations: Three
BAFTA Wins: None
Guild Nominations: Six
Guild Wins: None
Notes: This film has nearly identical reviews to Get Out, but as an Indie comedy, it is more Oscar friendly. This is why I’m a little surprised odds makers have this film as a longer shot at winning Best Picture.

Phantom Thread
Tomatometer Score: 91% Positive
Total Oscar Nominations: Six
Golden Globe Nominations: Two
Golden Globe Wins: None
BAFTA Nominations: Four
BAFTA Wins: One
Guild Nominations: None
Guild Wins: None
Notes: This film has not been all that busy during awards season. It has a great chance in at least one technical Oscar, but I think that’s all it will win.

The Post
Tomatometer Score: 88% Positive
Total Oscar Nominations: Two
Golden Globe Nominations: Six
Golden Globe Wins: None
BAFTA Nominations: None
BAFTA Wins: None
Guild Nominations: One
Guild Wins: None
Notes: This is not a bad movie, but its Awards Season performance so far has been well below the average on this list. It hasn’t won a major award yet and I don’t think that’s going to change on Oscar night.

The Shape of Water
Tomatometer Score: 92% Positive
Total Oscar Nominations: Thirteen
Golden Globe Nominations: Seven
Golden Globe Wins: Two
BAFTA Nominations: Twelve
BAFTA Wins: Three
Guild Nominations: Five
Guild Wins: Two
Notes: The Shape of Water earned the most Oscar nominations. Earning the most Oscar nominations is a good indicator of Oscar success, after all, you can’t win an Oscar you weren’t nominated for. However, the film that earned the most nominations has only won Best Picture once in the past five years. Additionally, twice there was a tie for most Oscar nominations, so the success rate is down to just over 14%. I think this film has a better chance than that, but I wouldn’t exactly call it a favorite.

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Tomatometer Score: 92% Positive
Total Oscar Nominations: Seven
Golden Globe Nominations: Six
Golden Globe Wins: Four
BAFTA Nominations: Eleven
BAFTA Wins: Two
Guild Nominations: Six
Guild Wins: Three
Notes: This film is practically guaranteed to win multiple Oscars and there’s a good chance it will be the big winner on Oscar night. I do think it has the best shot at winning Best Picture; however, its chance of winning the big prize is still less than 50%.

Conclusion: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is the favorite to win the Best Picture Oscar, but it is a relatively close race with The Shape of Water. Meanwhile, Get Out is the only other film that could win and I wouldn’t be completely stunned at that result.


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Filed under: Awards Season, Dunkirk, Get Out, Darkest Hour, Call Me by Your Name, The Post, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, The Shape of Water, Phantom Thread, Lady Bird