Weekend Predictions: Can Dinosaurs Stomp the Competition?
June 21, 2018
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom is the only wide release of the week and it was expected to dominate the box office. That was until Incredibles 2 broke records last weekend. Furthermore, Fallen Kingdom’s reviews have fallen below the overall positive level. Now there might be a race at the box office, at least on the daily charts. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Transformers: The Last Knight missed expectations with just $45 million over the weekend and $70 million in five days. Fallen Kingdom had better earn $45 million on Friday alone, or it is in serious trouble.
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom is the follow-up to Jurassic World, which was a stunning monster hit in 2015. Jurassic World was expected to earn a lot at the box office, but almost no one expected $650 million domestically and $1.6 billion worldwide. However, its reviews were only good and its lasting impression has steadily gotten worse. This means nearly everyone expects Fallen Kingdom to earn significantly less. How much less is up for debate. Earlier this month, I was still expecting a $150 million opening weekend, but as the buzz and reviews continued to slip, that became less likely. Then Incredibles 2 lived up to their name and that figure became even more unlikely. It’s still going to do well over the weekend, likely with between $120 million and $130 million, but it might not win the daily race on Saturday and, on Sunday, it will be even harder to come out on top. I’m going with $128 million during its opening weekend.
Incredibles 2 opened with more than $180 million last weekend and it also has the best reviews in the top ten and an A plus from CinemaScore. It is also a family film and all of this suggests long legs. That said, it still has to deal with massive competition and a 50% drop-off is unfortunately likely. That would still give it about $90 million over the weekend, while earning $100 million over the weekend is possible. That would be a 45% drop-off, which is difficult, but not impossible.
Ocean’s 8 will be next with about $10 million. It will likely get really close to $100 million by the end of the weekend, but I don’t think it will get to that milestone until Monday or Tuesday.
Tag doesn’t share a lot of its target audience with Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, but the sheer size of that film means a 50% drop off is likely. That would still leave the film with about $7 million over the weekend and close to $30 million in total. Assuming it can merely match its domestic box office internationally, the film should break even eventually.
Solo: A Star Wars Story and Deadpool 2 should be in a close battle for fifth place with just over $4 million each. Both films will also hit milestones this weekend, $200 million for the former, $300 million for the latter.
- Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Comparisons
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Incredibles 2, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Deadpool 2, Ocean’s 8, Tag