Weekend Predictions: Will Transylvania have a Buoyant Vacation? Or can Skyscraper Stand Tall?
July 12, 2018
There should be a close race at the top of the box office this weekend, as both Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation and Skyscraper have a real shot at $40 million over the weekend. In fact, there’s a good chance both films will earn first place at least one day over the weekend. Meanwhile, Ant-Man and the Wasp will be pushed into third place, but will still be a solid box office performer. It’s this depth that is key, because the top two films from this weekend last year, War for the Planet of the Apes and Spider-Man: Homecoming, both earned more than either of the two new releases this year are expected to earn. 2018 is weak at the top, but the depth gives the weekend a great shot at coming out ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation is the third film in the franchise. Its reviews are the best in the franchise, but tracking has it headed for the weakest opening. It has about a 50/50 chance of earning $40 million over the weekend, which is great for a family film that cost $65 million to make. Even if it just misses that mark with about $39 million, it will still be a great start for the film and it should have good legs.
Skyscraper is essentially the third action film for Dwayne Johnson this year. Granted, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle did open in 2017, but it earned the majority of its box office in 2018. Meanwhile, Rampage is just under $1 million away from $100 million domestically. I think Skyscraper will perform a bit better than Rampage did. Its reviews are practically identical, but Skyscraper is an easier sell than Rampage was. I think it will open in first place on Friday, but have to settle for second place on Saturday, before finishing the weekend in second place with $37 million.
Ant-Man and the Wasp topped Ant-Man’s opening weekend by 32%, but its lead was down to 28% by Tuesday. This is normal for sequels, even ones that earn better reviews than their predecessors. It is dealing with direct competition, so it will fall more than 50% and there’s a chance it will drop nearly 60%. I’m not that pessimistic, but falling to third place with $32 million seems likely at this point. This will still be enough to keep it on pace for $200 million domestically and it is doing even better internationally. It’s yet another hit for the MCU.
Incredibles 2 should earn fourth place with just over $15 million over the weekend. The film is already the biggest animated hit of all time, while it is sitting just outside of the top ten in the all-time domestic chart. It will enter the top ten this weekend and likely finish in ninth place.
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom should be right behind with $14 million over the weekend for a three-week total of about $328 million. The film should hit $300 million by the end of business on Thursday, but if not, it will get there early on Friday.
- Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation Comparisons
- Skyscraper Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Incredibles 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Ant-Man and the Wasp, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, Skyscraper, Marvel Cinematic Universe, Hotel Transylvania, Dwayne Johnson