Friday Estimates: Christopher Robin can’t make Fallout Fall from Top Spot
August 4, 2018
There was a virtual tie on top of the Friday box office chart, which was good news for Paramount, but not so good news for Disney. Mission: Impossible—Fallout held on better than expected, remaining in first place with $9.85 million, and putting it on pace for $34 million over the weekend. With this result, it will cruise to $200 million domestically. This would be the first $200 million hit for Paramount since Transformers: Age of Extinction came out in 2014. Four years is a long time between $200 million hits.
Christopher Robin was right behind with $9.47 million. It is a family film, so it will have a better internal multiplier than most movies do. Additionally, while its reviews are weaker than expected, it still earned an A from CinemaScore, so that’s a good sign. That said, even getting to $30 million over the weekend will be tough and it would take a lot of luck to get to $100 million domestically after this start.
The Spy Who Dumped Me pulled in $5.0 million during its opening night in the theaters, putting it on pace for about $13 million over the weekend. Its reviews were mixed and it only managed a B from CinemaScore. That said, the film didn’t need to open with $20 million to be a financial success, so I think Lionsgate will be satisfied.
On the other hand, The Darkest Minds flopped with just $2.32 million on Friday. It will likely finish the weekend with $6 million, putting it right on the edge of the Mendoza Line. Its reviews are below 20% positive, and it only managed a B from CinemaScore. Worse still, a lot theater owners will be looking to drop this film as soon as they are contractually able to.
Death of a Nation won’t miss the Mendoza Line, but it also won’t reach the top ten, as it debuted with just $950,000 in just over 1,000 theaters. It has still yet to register a single positive review and it was too small to track with CinemaScore. I think it will fade away quickly and be forgotten by the end of the month.
- Christopher Robin Comparisons
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- The Spy Who Dumped Me Comparisons
- The Darkest Minds Comparisons
- Death of a Nation Comparisons
Filed under: Friday Estimates, The Darkest Minds, Christopher Robin, Mission: Impossible—Fallout, The Spy Who Dumped Me, Death of a Nation