2018 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Supporting Actor

February 12, 2019

Green Book

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we look at the four acting categories, continuing with Best Supporting Actor. In this category, there is a favorite, but an upset isn’t out of the question.

(Note: All previous awards listed are only for acting and not other categories. However, they are for supporting and lead acting. Previous awards and nominations for TV roles are not included, on the other hand.)

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali for Green Book
Tomatometer Score: 80% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globes, BAFTA, and SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: Golden Globes, BAFTA, and SAG
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: One Oscar, One Golden Globe, One BAFTA, Four SAGs, and One Independent Spirit Awards
Actor's Previous Major Wins: One Oscar, Two SAGs, and One Independent Spirit Award
Notes: Mahershala Ali isn’t a supporting actor in Green Book and shouldn’t even be in this category. However, studios have a history of moving actors to different categories in order to increase their chances of winning and they do this and they do it because it works. I think it is going to work again.

Adam Driver in BlacKkKlansman
Tomatometer Score: 95% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globes, BAFTA, Two SAGs, and Independent Spirit Award
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None (One Pending)
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: None
Actor's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: BlacKkKlansman is Adam Driver’s first role where he’s gotten any real Awards Season attention. I would love for him to win, because the movie is amazing, but he’s a really, really long shot.

Sam Elliott for A Star is Born
Tomatometer Score: 90% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Two SAGs
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: Two Golden Globes
Actor's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: Sam Elliott’s career is over 50 years old, but this is his first Oscar nomination. Oscar voters do often give “Career Achievement Awards” in situations like this, but he’s only earned one other previous major nomination, so he’s not a favorite here. That said, if he wins, it likely won’t be the biggest upset of the night.

Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Tomatometer Score: 98% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAGs, and Independent Spirit Award
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None (One Pending)
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: One Independent Spirit Award
Actor's Previous Major Wins: One Independent Spirit Award
Notes: This is Richard E. Grant's first role that earned him major Awards Season attention. ... Really? He got nothing for Withnail and I?. I really want him to win and if he did win I seriously doubt it would be the biggest upset.

Sam Rockwell in Vice
Tomatometer Score: 66% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globes and BAFTA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: One Oscar, One Golden Globe, Four SAGs, and Two Independent Spirit Awards
Actor's Previous Major Wins: One Oscar, One Golden Globe, Two SAGs, and One Independent Spirit Awards
Notes: Sam Rockwell won an Oscar last year. He’s not going to win two years in a row, not for a movie with as weak reviews as Vice earned.

Conclusion: Mahershala Ali is a leading actor in Green Book and he should be in that category, leaving Richard E. Grant to be the favorite in this category. Unfortunately, the studio is playing the game and will likely walk away with the win as a result.


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Filed under: Awards Season, A Star is Born, Vice, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, BlacKkKlansman, Green Book, Sam Elliott, Richard E. Grant, Sam Rockwell, Adam Driver, Mahershala Ali