Weekend Predictions: Can Dumbo Soar Like the Original Did?
March 29, 2019
Dumbo essentially has the weekend to itself and should earn first place with ease. Both The Beach Bum and Unplanned are opening in just over 1,000 theaters, but neither is expected to be a major player at the box office. Finally, Hotel Mumbai is expanding into nearly 1,000 theaters and could reach the top ten. At least one of these smaller films will reach the top ten; in fact, all three of them could reach the top ten. However, this is due to really weak competition, not any box office strength these films possess. This weekend last year, Ready Player One led the way with $41 million, while Acrimony earned second place with $17 million. There’s a chance Dumbo will earn more than those two films earned. There’s also a chance Us and Captain Marvel will match those two films at the box office. It should be a good weekend for 2019 in the year-over-year comparison.
Dumbo is the latest live-action Disney film to come out and the first of three such films to be released this year. It is also the weakest in terms of box office potential, as the buzz is rather quiet compared to both Aladdin and The Lion King. The buzz is still loud, but not monster hit loud. The reviews are mixed, which likely won’t prove fatal, but it won’t help its legs either. Earlier in the month, the film’s opening weekend tracking was at $40 million to $50 million. Now it has risen to $50 million to $60 million, with some predicting $65 million or more. That’s a bit much and I don’t think it will get to $58 million, but it should be relatively close. I’m going with $58 million.
Us topped expectations last weekend, but this weekend it could fall rather sharply. Granted, its reviews are over 90% positive, but horror films rarely have great legs. A 50% drop-off seems likely, but even a $34 million sophomore stint will still be worth celebrating and will push its running tally past $100 million with ease.
Captain Marvel will be next with about $18 million. It will stay on pace to reach $400 million, with a little help from Avengers: Endgame.
Wonder Park and Five Feet Apart should be in a close race for fourth place with just over $5 million each. The race should be so close that the two films will change places on the daily chart over the weekend.
As for the three other “wide” releases, I just don’t know which one will perform the best. Hotel Mumbai will be playing in the fewest theaters and its reviews are merely good and not great. That said, it did earn $22,000 on the theater average chart last weekend and it should hold on well enough to not slip below $2,000 this weekend giving it just over $2 million over the next three days. However, there is a large margin of error associated with this and the next two predictions.
Unplanned is the latest faith-based film from Pure Flix. The distributor released four films last year and none of them opened above the Mendoza Line. In fact, the last film of theirs to manage that feat was The Case for Christ, which was released this time in 2017. I don’t think Unplanned will break this streak. Its reviews mostly don’t matter, because its target audience won’t be deterred by what critics say, while non-churchgoers almost never see faith-based films, certainly not ones released by Pure Flix. I don’t think the film will be among the worst films the company has released, but I do think it will miss the Mendoza Line with nearly $2 million.
The Beach Bum is being released by Neon, a relatively new distributor that has only had one significant box office hit, I, Tonya. If this film tops $2 million during the weekend, it would instantly become the company’s sixth biggest hit. I don’t think it is going to get there. The buzz is too quiet and the reviews are mixed. Meanwhile, its star is coming off one of his worst box office misses of his career. Look for an opening between $1 million and $2 million. It should be closer to $2 million, but that’s as optimistic as I can be.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Captain Marvel, Dumbo, Wonder Park, The Beach Bum, Us, Serenity, Five Feet Apart, Hotel Mumbai, Unplanned, Matthew McConaughey