Weekend Prediction: Shazam Should have a Super Start

April 4, 2019

Shazam

Shazam is the biggest release of the weekend and will almost certainly be the second biggest hit of the month. It also has some of the best reviews of the year so far. Pet Sematary should be in a solid second place, both in terms of box office dollars and reviews. Finally there’s The Best of Enemies, which is not only the smallest release on this week’s list, but it is also earning the weakest reviews. However, the biggest box office hit of the weekend will very likely be Avengers: Endgame, as tickets went on sale during the week and I suspect advanced ticket sales for that film will top everything coming out this week. (Early tracking for that film is nearing $300 million just for its opening weekend.) This weekend last year, A Quiet Place opened with just over $50 million, a little more than the next two films combined earned. Fortunately for 2019, there was a huge drop-off from the top three to the rest of the releases, so if we have better depth this year, then 2019 could continue its winning ways.

Shazam is the seventh installment in the D.C.E.U., although one might argue it is the third installment in the post-Grimdark D.C.E.U. If it does as well as most box office analysts think it will do, it will certainly put the final nail in the Grimdark coffin. Its reviews are among the best of the year and it earned $3.3 million during its special engagement. Early tracking had the film earning between $40 million and $50 million, but I think it will beat that, potentially topping $55 million. I’m going to be a little more conservative and predict $52 million during its opening weekend. It should have better legs than most comic book super hero movies have, since it is certainly aimed at families more than just teenagers and young adults. And with a production budget of “only” $85 million, it will be fantastically profitable, assuming it does relatively well internationally.

Pet Sematary is the latest Stephen King adaptation to hit theaters. There have been a lot of these films over the decades, but the hit to miss ratio with critics has been spotty, at best. Fortunately, this film is one of the best according to its Tomatometer Score. Its buzz is also really solid with a potential to be a major hit in its counter-programming role. The film should have little trouble opening about $25 million during the weekend, while on the high end, it could hit $35 million. I think $29 million is more likely, but I hope I’m underestimating the demand here. I am a little concerned Shazam will siphon off some of this film’s audience. Granted, it is aimed at a slightly older audience, but there is still a lot of crossover appeal between super hero movies and horror films.

Dumbo should be next. It is a family film, so that should help its legs; however, its reviews and its A minus from CinemaScore suggest its legs won’t be very long. Additionally, Shazam is also aimed at families, so that will hurt this film’s box office chances even more. I don’t think it will fall more than 50%, but it will likely be really close. Look for a sophomore stint run of $24 million.

Us has to deal with direct competition and that could hurt it at the box office. It is also starting to lose theaters, which won’t help. That said, it is still a fantastic movie and drop-off of 50% is likely. Look for about $17 million over the weekend, pushing its running tally to over $150 million.

Captain Marvel will round out the top five with just over $11 million. It will be hurt by Shazam, but the ticket presales for Avengers: Endgame might actually help. I wouldn’t be surprised if some people who pre-ordered for Endgame decide to see this movie this weekend to get ready for the upcoming film.

The Best of Enemies will very likely miss the top five with about $7 million. It is opening in less than 2,000 theaters and its reviews are the weakest of the three wide releases coming out on this week’s list. On the positive side, the film’s target audience doesn’t have a lot of crossover appeal with the other two wide releases, so that should help it carve out a niche at the box office.

- Shazam Comparisons
- Pet Sematary Comparisons
- The Best of Enemies Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Shazam!, Captain Marvel, Dumbo, The Best of Enemies, Us, Pet Sematary, DC Extended Universe, Stephen King