Weekend Estimates: Aladdin Goes Long with $86 million over Three-Day Weekend

May 26, 2019

Aladdin

Aladdin’s box office continues to grow with Disney projecting $86.1 million over the three-day weekend, putting it on pace for $105 million including Monday. Its reviews are fine, but its A from CinemaScore is really telling a story here and it should lead to long legs, especially with school holidays starting soon. Internationally, the film earned $121.0 million, not including Monday, for a $207.1 million global debut. The film did okay in China with $18.7 million, but clearly the lack of nostalgia was hurting it here. The film was a much bigger hit in Mexico with $9.2 million, but it was also a smash in the U.K. ($8.4 million); Italy ($6.6 million); and others. More on that during our International Top Five column.

If the estimates hold, then John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum will top our prediction with just over $30 million over the four-day weekend. It is estimated to earn $24.35 million over the three-day weekend, putting its running tally at $100.99 million as of the end of business on Sunday. Internationally, the film isn’t doing nearly as well with an estimated $24.8 million in 74 markets for a running tally of $74.4 million. However, it is doing well enough to become the undisputed biggest hit in the franchise and more than enough to break even early in its home market run.

Avengers: Endgame is matching expectations nearly perfectly with $16.84 million over the three-day weekend for a running tally of $798.17 million. It will reach $800 million domestically on Monday with a projected $21.9 million four-day weekend. Internationally, it is estimated to have earned $15.3 million in 54 markets for totals of $1.879 billion internationally and $2.678 billion worldwide

Pokémon: Detective Pikachu won’t match expectations, but it should come close with an estimated three-day weekend of $13.3 million and a projected 4-day weekend of $17 million. Aladdin over-performed and that hurt this film more than any other wide release. It is doing better internationally with an estimated $24.3 million on 17,225 screens in 72 markets over the weekend for totals of $236.8 million internationally and $352.9 million worldwide. The film has nearly paid for its $150 million production budget and it should break even sometime during its home market run.

Brightburn is matching expectations with an estimated $7.54 million over the three-day weekend and just under $10 million including Monday. There’s still no CinemaScore, which is odd, but the reviews are good, so it should have reasonable legs for a horror film. The film only managed $4.5 million on over 5,500 screens in 50 markets for an early international total of $7.8 million. It wasn’t able to crack $1 million in any single market with Russia being the closest at $775,000.

Booksmart is really struggling with an estimated $6.51 million over the three-day weekend for a projected $8 million over four. The film has some of the best reviews of the year, but it only managed a B plus from CinemScore, so it didn’t match audience expectations as well.

It was a busy week for limited releases and there are several that have estimates in the $10,000 club. This includes Echo in the Canyon with its estimated average of $51,858 in two theaters. I was going to say, “If estimates hold, it will have the best theater average for a limited release.” However, it is approximately 50% above Fighting With My Family’s opening weekend theater average, so it would have to have an unprecedented collapse from its estimate to its final number to not take top spot for the year. There were a trio of other films in the $10,000 club according to estimates, but these are a lot closer to slipping below that mark. They are The Proposal at $12,100, Halston at $11,824, and The Spy Behind Home Plate at $10,250. All three documentaries were playing in just one theater.

Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Avengers: Endgame, Aladdin, John Wick: Chapter 3 — Parabellum, Pokémon: Detective Pikachu, Booksmart, Echo in the Canyon, BrightBurn, The Proposal, Halston, The Spy Behind Home Plate, John Wick