Weekend Estimates: Hobbs and Shaw Remain Top Draw
August 11, 2019
There’s not much new to report from Friday’s estimates, as nearly every film matched yesterday’s projections with today’s estimates. This includes Fast and Furious Presents: Hobbs and Shaw, which is pulling in $25.4 million over the weekend to give it a running tally of $108.5 million. This is on the low end of expectations, but not a disaster. On the positive side, despite this drop, it will remain in theaters for a while, because even if theater owners would want to replace the movie, there’s no big films coming out that would be guaranteed to do better. Additionally, while the film is struggling domestically, it is earning $60.8 million internationally for totals of $224.1 million internationally and $332.6 million worldwide. This weekend, the film debuted in France with an estimated $6.94 million in 809 theaters and in Italy with $2.57 million in 411. The film opens in South Korea this week and China next weekend. It is expected to earn more in China than it did domestically, so it should still hit $600 million worldwide.
Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark is estimated to earn $20.8 million during its opening weekend. This is not only on the very high end of the tracking numbers, it puts it in a virtual tie with The Woman in Black for CBS Films’ best opening of all time. Its reviews should help its legs, and it earned a C from CinemaScore, which is fine for a horror film.
The Lion King is earning third place with $20.0 million, which would give it a four-week total of $473.1 million. It will get to $500 million domestically, but it will likely fall out of the top five before then.
Dora and the Lost City of Gold isn’t matching our original prediction, but it did match yeasterday’s projections with an estimated $17.0 million. It will need good legs and strong international numbers to be a large enough financial success to warrant a sequel. Its reviews and its A from CinemaScore will help its legs, but it is too soon to tell how well it will do internationally.
Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood will round out the top five with an estimated $11.6 million. This is enough to get the movie over the $100 million mark by the end the weekend. However, it was an expensive movie to make, so it needs to be a hit internationally to break even. Fortunately, it started its international run this weekend in Russia earning an estimated $7.7 million. That’s a record opening for a Quentin Tarantino film in that market and bodes well for the film’s future.
On the other hand, none of the other new releases did well. The Art of Racing in the Rain is matching low expectations with an estimated $8.1 million over the weekend. Its reviews are weak, but it did manage an A minus from CinemaScore, so its legs could be decent. On the other hand, if it drops just 50% next weekend, theater owners will be looking to drop it as soon as they are contractually able to.
The Kitchen is earning an estimated $5.51 million, putting it on the razor’s edge of the Mendoza Line. If tomorrow’s final numbers are just 0.4% lower, then it will miss that mark. Given the film’s reviews and its B minus from CinemaScore, it won’t really matter. It is merely about saving face.
Bring the Soul: The Movie was a surprise entry in the top ten, earning an estimated $2.30 million in just 873 theaters over the weekend for a total opening of $4.42 million including a Wednesday special engagement. The film only has one review, but since it was made for fans, the opinion of critics would have no impact on its box office one way or the other.
This left Brian Banks on the outside looking it. The film is earning an estimated $2.15 million, leaving it in 12th place on the chart. Its reviews are mixed, while it was too small of a release to get a CinemaScore.
There were three limited releases earning estimates that put them in the $10,000 club on the theater average chart. They were The Peanut Butter Falcon ($12,073); After the Wedding ($11,425); and One Child Nation ($11,122).
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Filed under: Weekend Estimates, The Lion King, The Peanut Butter Falcon, Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, Dora and the Lost City of Gold, The Kitchen, The Art of Racing in the Rain, After the Wedding, Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark, Brian Banks, One Child Nation, Bring the Soul: The Movie, Quentin Tarantino